[经济学]宏观经济学课件及习题第4章 54页

EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nImportantConceptsCompoundinterest复利Diminishingreturnstocapital资本收益递减Entrepreneur企业家2Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nChapteroutlineThesourcesofeconomicgrowthandrisinglivingstandardsinthemodernworldAnalyzeeachoftherefactorsanddiscussitsimplicationsforgovernmentpoliciestopromotegrowth3Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nIntroduction“Whichwouldyouratherbe?Anordinary,middleclassAmericanlivingtoday,ortherichestpersoninAmericaatthetimeofGeorgeWashington?”4Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\n5Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\n6Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\n7Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\n8Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\n9Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\n10Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nYoucanthinkofenormouschangeinthewayaveragepeopleliveThesechangesaredueinlargeparttoscientificadvances.Newscientificknowledgeleadstowidespreadimprovementsinlivingstandardsonlywhenitiscommerciallyapplied11Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nⅠ.theremarkableriseinlivingstandards:therecordCompoundinterestWhynationsbecomerich:thecrucialroleofaveragelaborproductivity12Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nRealGDPperPersonInSelectedCountries,1870-2003(in2000U.S.Dollars)CountryAustralia5,5127,2369,36917,67028,3121.22.1Canada2,3285,5098,90619,88229,2011.92.3France2,2914,4846,16418,13826,1761.82.8Germany1,1522,2184,78517,22225,2712.33.2Italy2,8524,0185,12816,91225,4581.73.1Japan9311,7632,14116,32926,6362.64.9UnitedKingdom3,8925,9768,70916,55726,8521.52.1UnitedStates2,8876,85212,11022,83535,4881.92.0Annual%change1950-2003Annual%change1870-20031870191319501979200313Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nRealGDPperPersoninFiveIndustrializedCountries,1870-200314Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nObservationThevariety,quality,andquantityofgoodsandservicesincreasedenormouslyduringthe19thand20thcenturies,asreflectedinrealpercapitaGDP.15Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nRealGDPperPersonInSelectedCountries,1870-2000(in1995U.S.Dollars)CountryAustralia5,6267,3859,56118,03324,7081.11.9Canada2,4475,7919,36220,89926,6041.82.1France2,2494,4016,04917,80122,4471.82.6Germany1,2052,3205,00518,01423,2472.33.1Italy2,2483,1674,04213,33121,9301.83.4Japan9631,8252,21616,89924,7722.54.8UnitedKingdom3,5005,3747,83214,88921,1421.42.0UnitedStates2,8436,74511,92122,48032,6291.92.0Annual%change1950-2000Annual%change1870-200018701913195019792000Observations1870:AustraliahadthehighestpercapitalrealGDPandJapanthelowest2000realpercapitaGDPinJapanexceededAustraliaNotethedifferenceinthegrowthrateof1.1%forAustraliaand2.5%forJapan16Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nRealGDPperPersonInSelectedCountries,1870-2003(in2000U.S.Dollars)CountryAustralia5,5127,2369,36917,67028,3121.22.1Canada2,3285,5098,90619,88229,2011.92.3France2,2914,4846,16418,13826,1761.82.8Germany1,1522,2184,78517,22225,2712.33.2Italy2,8524,0185,12816,91225,4581.73.1Japan9311,7632,14116,32926,6362.64.9UnitedKingdom3,8925,9768,70916,55726,8521.52.1UnitedStates2,8876,85212,11022,83535,4881.92.0Annual%change1950-2003Annual%change1870-200318701913195019792003Observations2000RealPerCapitalGDPinJapanwasgreaterthanAustralia2003Australia’sRealPerCapitaGDPwasgreaterthanJapanSmallchangesingrowthratesmakeabigdifference17Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nCompoundInterestThepaymentofinterestnotonlyontheoriginaldepositbutonallpreviouslyaccumulatedinterestWhy“Small”DifferencesinGrowthRatesMatter18Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nWhy“Small”DifferencesinGrowthRatesMatterCompoundInterestSuppose:In1800$10deposited@4%interestIn2005theaccountisworth$25,507.50$10x(1.04)205=$31,033.7719Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nWhy“Small”DifferencesinGrowthRatesMatterInterestrate(%)Valueof$10after205years2$579.484$31,033.776$1,540,644.29ObservationsAsmallsumcompoundedoverlongperiodscangreatlyincreaseinvalueSmalldifferencesininteresthaveaverylargeimpactonvalue20Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nCompoundInterestEconomicgrowthratesaresimilartocompoundinterestrates.Governmentpoliciesthataffectthelong-termgrowthratebyasmallamountwillhaveamajoreconomicimpact.21Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nWhyNationsBecomeRich:TheCrucialRoleofAverageLaborProductivityQuestionWhatdeterminesanation’seconomicgrowthrate?Somedefinitions:Y=realGDPN=numberofemployedworkersPOP=totalpopulation22Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nRealGDPPerPerson23Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nRealGDPPerPersonObservationsRealoutput/persondependson:Howmucheachworkercanproduce.Thepercentofthepopulationthatisworking.24Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nRealGDPperPersonandAverageLaborProductivityintheU.S.,1960-2004RealGDPperpersongrewby166%between1960and200425Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nShareoftheU.S.PopulationEmployed,1960-2004Increasesinbothlaborproductivityandtheworkingpeoplecontributetothisriseinlivingstandard26Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nWhyNationsBecomeRich:TheCrucialRoleofAverageLaborProductivityWhatdeterminesanation’seconomicgrowthrate?Inthelongrun,increasesinoutputperpersonariseprimarilyfromincreasesinaveragelaborproductivity.27Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nⅡ.TheDeterminantsofAverageLaborProductivityA.HumanCapitalThetalents,education,training,andskillsofworkers28Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nExampleLucyandEthelontheassemblylineLucyandEthelwrapandboxchocolatecandies.Lucy(anovice)wraps100candies/hror4,000/weekEthel(receivedon-the-jobtraining)wraps300/hror12,000/weekAveragelaborproductivity/week=16,000/2=8,000/weekor16,000/80hrs=200candies/hrEthel(withtraining)ismoreproductivethanLucy29Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nB.PhysicalCapitalWorkerproductivitydependsnotonlyontheirskills(humancapital)butonthetools(physicalcapital)theyhavetoworkwith.30Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nExampleLucyandEthelgetautomatedCandyCobuysacandy-wrappingmachineoperatedbyoneworkerAnuntrainedworkerusingthemachinecanwrap500candies/hrLucyusesthemachineandEthelwrapsbyhand31Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nExampleLucy’sweeklyoutput(40hrsx500)=20,000candiesEthel’sweeklyoutput(40hrsx300)=12,000candiesTotaloutput=32,000candies/weekoraveragelaborproductivity=16,000candies/weekor32,000/80hrs.=400candies/hr.Doubletheaverageproductivitywiththemachine32Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nAverageLaborProductivityandCapitalperWorkerin15Countries,199033Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nCapital,Output,andProductivityintheCandy-WrappingFactory(1)Numberofmachines(capital)016,00080200132,00080400240,00080500340,00080500(2)Totalnumberofcandieswrappedeachweek(output)(3)Totalhoursworkedperweek(4)Candieswrappedperhourworked(productivity)ObservationsForagivennumberofworkers,addingcapitalwillgenerallyincreaseoutputandaveragelaborproductivityThemorecapitalthatisalreadyinplace,thesmallerthebenefitsofaddingextracapital34Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nDiminishingReturnstoCapitalIftheamountoflaborandotherinputsemployedisheldconstant,thenthegreatertheamountofcapitalalreadyinuse,thelessanadditionalunitofcapitaladdstoproduction.35Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nPhysicalCapitalPublicpolicydesignedtostimulategrowthshouldconsiderthat:Increasingtheamountofcapitalavailabletotheworkforcewilltendtoincreaseoutputandaveragelaborproductivity.Thedegreetowhichproductivitycanbeincreasedbyanexpandingstockofcapitalislimited.36Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nC.LandandOtherNaturalResourcesGenerally,anabundanceofnaturalresourcesincreasestheproductivityofworkers.Resourcescanbeobtainedthroughinternationalmarkets.37Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nD.TechnologyNewtechnologiesarethesinglemostimportantsourceofproductivityimprovement.Anewtechnologywillexpandtheproductivityinmanysectorsbystimulatinggreaterspecialization.38Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nE.EntrepreneurshipandManagementEntrepreneursPeoplewhocreateneweconomicenterprises39Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nEntrepreneurshipandManagementFactorsinfluencingentrepreneurshipTaxationRegulationSocialCustoms40Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nEntrepreneurshipandManagementManagement:Influenceproductivitybyimplementingmoreefficientmethodsofproduction.41Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nF.ThePoliticalandLegalEnvironmentEstablish:Well-definedpropertyrightsMaintainpoliticalstabilityPromotefreeandopenexchangeofideas42Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nⅢ.TheCostsofEconomicGrowthTheopportunitycostofincreasingtheproductionofcapitalgoodsis:Lessconsumergoods.Reducedleisuretime,worker’ssafety,andhealth.ThecostofR&D.Thecostofeducation(humancapital).43Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nWhatDoYouThink?Dothebenefitsofeconomicgrowthexceedthecosts?44Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nⅣ.PromotingEconomicGrowthPoliciestoincreasehumancapitalPoliciesthatpromotesavingandinvestmentPoliciesthatsupportresearchanddevelopmentThelegalandpoliticalframework45Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nWhydoalmostallcountriesprovidefreepubliceducation?46Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nPoliciesthatpromotesavingandinvestmentTaxcodeprovisionsPublicinvestmentandcreationofinfrastructure47Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\n48Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nPoliciesthatsupportresearchanddevelopment49Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nImprovethelegalandpoliticalframeworkThePoorestCountries:ASpecialCase?CorruptlegalsystemscreateuncertaintyaboutpropertyrightsTaxationandregulationdiscouragesentrepreneurshipMarketsarenotallowedtofunctionLackofpoliticalstabilitydiscouragesforeigninvestment50Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nAreThereLimitstoGrowth?Limitstogrowth,assumeseconomicgrowthwilltaketheformofwhatwehavenow.Limitstogrowth,overlooksthatgrowthexpandssociety’scapacitytosafeguardtheenvironment.Limitstogrowth,underestimatesthepowerofmarketstodealwithscarcity.51Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nEnvironmentallimits52Chapter7:EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nAreThereLimitstoGrowth?WhatDoYouThink?Howcanweaddressglobalenvironmentalissues?53Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards\nEndofChapter