[2010_06_10] a cut too far 赤字削减过头了吗 - 社论 leaders - 经济学人 经济学人经济学家 - powered by 27页

[2010_06_10]Acuttoofar赤字削减过头了吗-社论Leaders-经济学人经济学人经济学家-Poweredby[2010.06.10]Acuttoofar?璧ゅ瓧鍓婂噺杩囧ご浜嗗悧?-绀捐Leaders-缁忔祹瀛︿汉缁忔祹瀛︿汉|缁忔祹瀛﹀-PoweredbyDiscuz!娉ㄥ唽鎴愪负ECOer鐧诲綍姣忓懆閫夐鏂版墜鎶ュ埌鍏憡鏍忛€氬ぉ濉斿悇鍦拌仈璋婃悳绱log榛樿blue椋庢牸jeansfashionfervorgreenwalluchome2009christmas绉佷汉娑堟伅(0)鍏叡娑堟伅(0)绯荤粺娑堟伅(0)濂藉弸娑堟伅(0)甯栧瓙娑堟伅(0)搴旂敤閫氱煡(0)搴旂敤閭€璇?(0)缁忔祹瀛︿汉禄绀捐Leaders禄[2010.06.10]Acuttoofar?璧ゅ瓧鍓婂噺杩囧ご浜嗗悧?鏂版墜蹇呰TE璇戞枃瑙勮寖|ECO鑻辫娌欓緳ECO鎷涜仒鍚簨璇戞枃濂栧姳璁″垝鈥滈€氬ぉ濉斺€漈E鎺堟潈澹版槑|QQ绗?0缇?鑵捐寰崥璁㈤槄TheEconomist12涓嬩竴椤佃繑鍥炲垪琛?鍙戝笘angleyu2007鍙戠煭娑堟伅鍔犱负濂藉弸angleyu2007褰撳墠鍦ㄧ嚎UID77969甯栧瓙606涓婚115绮惧崕3绉垎151绉疮84鐐?鐜伴噾768GBP鍘熷垱璇戜綔115绡?鏈懆涔嬫槦0娆?濂栧姳璇戞枃5娆?鏉ユ簮缃戠珯閾炬帴闃呰鏉冮檺100鎬у埆鐢?鍦ㄧ嚎鏃堕棿433灏忔椂娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-10-28鏈€鍚庣櫥褰?010-6-22瑙佷範鐗堜富\n甯栧瓙606绉垎151鍘熷垱璇戜綔115绡?娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-10-281妤?璺宠浆鍒?禄鍊掑簭鐪嬪笘鎵撳嵃瀛椾綋澶у皬:tT鍙戣〃浜?2010-6-1212:20|鍙湅璇ヤ綔鑰?[2010.06.10]Acuttoofar?璧ゅ瓧鍓婂噺杩囧ご浜嗗悧?fiscal,austerity,璐㈡斂绱х缉鏈笘鏈€鍚庣敱angleyu2007浜?2010-6-1821:29缂栬緫Mythsaboutfiscalausterity璐㈡斂绱х缉鐨勭璇?Acuttoofar?璧ゅ瓧鍓婂噺杩囧ご浜嗗悧锛?TheG20鈥檚budgetcutsarelessrecklessthanmanyfear.Beworriedinsteadbythepaucityofstructuralreforms20鍥介泦鍥㈢殑棰勭畻鍓婂噺鏂规骞朵笉姣斿緢澶氫汉鎷呭咖鐨勯偅鏍烽瞾鑾斤紱鐩稿弽锛屽簲鎷呭績缁撴瀯鎬ф敼闈╃殑缂轰箯Jun10th2010YOUcouldbeforgivenforbelievingthatagreatchangeinglobaleconomicpolicyhasjusttakenplace.Judgedbythestatement\nreleasedaftertheirlatestmeeting,inSouthKoreaonJune4th-5th,thefinanceministersoftheG20groupoftheworld鈥檚biggesteconomieshaveditchedtheircollectivecommitmenttoKeynesiandeficitspending.Unlikeearlierannouncements,includingoneasrecentlyasApril,thedocumentmakesnomentionoffiscalstimulustohelpstrugglingeconomies.Insteaditarguesthat鈥渃ountrieswithseriousfiscalchallengesneedtoacceleratethepaceofconsolidation.鈥?浣犵浉淇′笘鐣岀粡娴庢斂绛栧垰鍙戠敓浜嗛噸澶у彉鍖栨槸鍙互鐞嗚В鐨勩€?0鍥介泦鍥㈣储闀垮嘲浼氫簬6鏈?-5鏃ュ湪闊╁浗涓捐锛屾牴鎹細鍚庡畼鏂瑰彂甯冪殑涓€浠藉叕鎶ュ彲浠ュ垽鏂嚭锛屼笘鐣屼笂鏈€澶х粡娴庝綋鐨勮储闀夸滑宸茬粡鎶涘純浜嗗鍑仼鏂富涔夎丹瀛楀紑鏀殑闆嗕綋淇″銆備笌鏃╁墠鐨勫叕鎶ワ紙鍖呮嫭鍥涙湀浠界殑涓€浠斤級涓嶅悓锛岃浠芥枃浠跺苟鏈彁鍙婂疄鏂借储鏀垮埡婵€璁″垝甯姪闄峰叆鍥板鐨勭粡娴庝綋銆傜浉鍙嶏紝璇ユ枃浠惰涓猴紝鈥滈潰涓翠弗宄昏储鏀胯€冮獙鐨勫浗瀹讹紝蹇呴』鍔犲揩宸╁浐姝ヤ紣鈥濄€?Somepoliticians,mainlyfromEurope,hailedtheshift.Germanyhasbeencallingloudlyforgreaterfiscalprudence.\nGeorgeOsborne,Britain鈥檚newchancelloroftheexchequerwhoisreadyinghiscountryforfiscalfrugality,crowedthattheG20hadcomeroundtohiswayofthinking.ManyKeynesianeconomistsareaghast,arguingthatsavagebudgetcutswillfellafragilerecoveryandcondemntherichworldtodeflation.PaulKrugman,acolumnistfortheNewYorkTimes,wroteinhisblogofthe鈥渦tterfolly鈥?of鈥渕admeninauthority鈥?涓€浜涙斂瀹紙涓昏鏉ヨ嚜娆ф床锛夌洓璧炶繖涓€杞彉銆傚痉鍥介珮璋冨懠鍚佸姞澶ц储鏀垮鎱庡姏搴︺€傝嫳鍥芥柊璐㈢浉涔旀不鈥㈠ゥ鏂湰(GeorgeOsborne)姝ｅ噯澶囨帹琛岃储鏀胯妭淇柟妗堬紝绗戠О20鍥介泦鍥㈠凡鎺ュ彈浜嗕粬鐨勬€濊€冩柟寮忋€傚姝わ紝璁稿鍑仼鏂娲剧殑缁忔祹瀛﹀浠劅鍒板悆鎯婏紝浠栦滑璁や负澶у箙鍓婂噺棰勭畻灏嗘柇閫佹湰宸茶剢寮变笉鍫殑缁忔祹澶嶈嫃锛岀户鑰屼娇鍙戣揪鍥藉闄峰叆閫氳揣绱х缉鐨勫洶澧冦€傘€婄航绾︽椂鎶ャ€嬬殑涓撴爮浣滃淇濈綏鈥㈠厠椴佹牸鏇硷紙PaulKrugman锛夊湪浠栫殑鍗氬涓挵鍐欎簡涓€绡囥€婃墽鎺屾潈鏌勭殑鐙備汉銆嬨€愭敞1銆戠殑鏂囩珷锛屾寚鍑哄墛鍑忚丹瀛楁槸鈥滃交澶村交灏剧殑鎰氳牏鍋氭硶鈥濄€?Inonesense,MrKrugman鈥檚logicisreasonable.Itwouldindeedbe\nfollyforlargechunksoftheworldeconomytoembarkonanimmediateanddraconiansetofbudgetcuts.Inmostrichcountriesrecoveriesarestillfragile.Someshowsignsofrenewedweakness:America鈥檚private-sectorjobgrowthinMay,forinstance,wassurprisinglyfeeble.Althoughgapingfiscaldeficitsclearlycannotbesustainedforever,prematuretighteningcanbeextremelydangerous,astheexperiencesofAmericain1937andJapanin1997plainlyshow.浠庢煇绉嶆剰涔変笂璁诧紝鍏嬮瞾鏍兼浖鐨勯€昏緫鏄悎鐞嗙殑銆傚鏋滃ぇ閮ㄥ垎鐨勪笘鐣岀粡娴庡疄浣撶珛鍗崇潃鎵嬪疄鏂戒竴濂椾弗鏍肩殑棰勭畻鍓婂噺鏂规锛岄偅涓€瀹氭槸鎰氳牏鐨勩€傚洜涓哄ぇ澶氭暟鍙戣揪鍥藉鐨勭粡娴庡鑻忎粛寰堣剢寮便€傛湁鍑犱釜鍥藉閲嶆柊鍑虹幇鐤茶蒋鎬佸娍锛氫緥濡傦紝鍏湀浠界編鍥藉湪绉佷汉浼佷笟棰嗗煙鐨勫氨涓氬闀挎儕鐜颁綆杩枫€傚敖绠¤储鏀胯丹瀛楃己鍙ｄ笉鍙兘姘镐箙鎸佺画涓嬪幓锛屼絾绱х缉杩囨棭鍗遍櫓鑷虫瀬锛?937骞寸編鍥藉ぇ钀ф潯鍜?997骞存棩鏈粡娴庢场娌殑鐮寸伃杩欎袱渚嬪啀鏄庢樉涓嶈繃銆?Fortunately,however,theG20鈥檚rhetoricisfartougherthanthelikelyreality.ContrarytoMrKrugman鈥檚fears,thereislittle\nevidencefromactualbudgetplansthattheworld鈥檚financeministersareembarkingonanimmediatecollectiveausteritydrive.Americanpoliticiansarestilldebatingasecondmini-stimulus.EveninEurope,wherethefocusondeficitreductionisgreatest,theimpactwillintheshorttermberelativelymodest(seearticle).涓嶈繃骞歌繍鐨勬槸锛?0鍥介泦鍥㈢殑鎺緸姣旇繖涓€鍙兘鐨勭幇瀹炶鑹伴毦寰楀銆傚疄闄呯殑棰勭畻鏂规椴滄湁璇佹嵁琛ㄦ槑锛?0鍥借储闀挎灏辩揣缂╂斂绛栫珛鍗宠揪鎴愬叡璇嗭紝杩欎笌鍏嬮瞾鏍兼浖鐨勬媴蹇х浉宸︺€傜編鍥芥斂娌诲浠粛鐒跺湪浜夎绗簩鏈熷皬瑙勬ā鍒烘縺鏂规銆傚嵆渚挎槸鍦ㄨ丹瀛楀墛鍑忔渶涓洪泦涓殑娆ф床锛岃丹瀛楀墛鍑忕煭鏈熷唴瀵圭粡娴庡仛鍑虹殑璐＄尞骞朵笉鍗佸垎鏄捐憲锛堣鏈枃锛夈€?Underpressurefromthebondmarkets,thecountriesatthecentreoftheeuro-areadebtcrisis鈥擥reece,Spain,PortugalandIreland鈥攈avenochoicebuttomaketoughcuts.Butthesearemostlysmalleconomies.SpainistheonlybiggishEuropeaneconomyplanningfiscalcutsworthmorethan1%ofGDPthisyear.Germanyis\nharrumphingloudlyaboutausterity;itunveiledasetofcutsamidmuchhooplathisweek.Butlookatthedetailsandtheyarehardlyextreme.Thankstoitsongoingstimulusspending,whichitisnotproposingtotrim,Germany鈥檚underlyingbudgetdeficitisforecasttorisethisyear.Theplanistoshrinkitgraduallyfrom2011,beginningwithcutsworthsome0.4%ofGDPnextyear.Notonlyisthescalerelativelymodest,themeasuresthemselves(suchascuttingmilitaryspendingandtighteningwelfarepayments)aresensible.\n鍦ㄥ€哄埜甯傚満鐨勫帇鍔涗笅锛屾繁闄锋鍏冨尯鍊哄姟鍗辨満涓績鐨勮タ娆у浗瀹?--甯岃厞銆佽タ鐝墮銆佽憽钀勭墮銆佺埍灏斿叞---闄や簡瀹炴柦涓ュ帀鐨勫墛鍑忔帾鏂藉埆鏃犻€夋嫨銆備絾杩欏嚑涓浗瀹跺ぇ澶氭槸灏忓瀷缁忔祹浣撱€傝タ鐝墮鏄敮涓€涓€涓鍒掓秷鍑忛绠楄丹瀛楁€诲€艰秴杩囧浗鍐呯敓浜ф€诲€?%鐨勬娲茬粡娴庡ぇ鍥姐€傚痉鍥戒篃澶у０鍢熷洈鐫€瑕佺揣缂╄丹瀛楋紝鍦ㄨ澶氬惖闂瑰０涓叕甯冧簡涓€濂楀墛鍑忔柟妗堛€備絾浠旂粏鐮旂┒璇ユ柟妗堢殑璇︾粏鍐呭锛屽彂鐜板畠浠繕鏈揪鍒版瀬闄愩€傜敱浜庡痉鍥界殑鍒烘縺鎬ф敮鍑烘寔缁鍔狅紝涓旀病鏈夊墛鍑忕殑杩硅薄锛屼及璁″叾娼滃湪鐨勯绠楄丹瀛楀皢浼氬湪鏈勾搴︿笂鍗囥€傝濂楁柟妗堟棬鍦ㄤ粠2011骞磋捣閫愭闄嶄綆璧ゅ瓧锛屾槑骞村紑濮嬪墛鍑忓叾鍗犲浗鍐呯敓浜ф€诲€?.4%宸﹀彸鐨勮丹瀛椼€備笉浣嗗墛鍑忚妯＄浉瀵归€備腑锛岃€屼笖鎺柦鏈韩锛堝鍓婂噺鍐涗簨寮€鏀互鍙婄ぞ浼氱鍒╂敮鍑猴級涔熷垏鍚堝疄闄呫€?Britain,whichawaitsan鈥渆mergencybudget鈥?onJune22nd,willbetougher.ItsnewgovernmentisgrapplingwithadeficitthatrivalsSpain鈥檚.Butseriousspendingcutswillnotbeginuntilnextyear.AndinbothBritainandtheeurozone,fiercerfiscaltighteningcan鈥攁ndshould鈥攂ecounteredbycentralbankskeepingmonetarypolicylooserforlonger.鑻卞浗鍑嗗浜庢湰鏈?2鏃ュ疄鏂戒竴椤?鈥滃簲鎬ラ绠楁柟妗堚€濓紝杈冨叾浠栨満鏋勫浗瀹惰鏇村姞涓ュ帀銆傝嫳鍥芥柊鏀垮簻闈复鐫€涓庤タ鐝墮鈥滈毦鍒嗛珮涓嬧€濈殑璧ゅ瓧鍥板銆備絾鐪熸鐨勬敮鍑哄墛鍑忚绛夊埌鏄庡勾鎵嶅紑濮嬪疄鏂姐€傚湪鑻卞浗鍜屾鍏冨尯鍥藉涓紝鏇存縺鐑堢殑璐㈡斂绱х缉甯︽潵鐨勬晥搴旇兘澶燂紙涔熷簲璇ワ級琚ぎ琛屾洿鎸佷箙鐨勮揣甯佸鏉炬斂绛栨墍鎶垫秷銆?Notstupid,butnotsmartenough铏戒笉鎰氳牏锛屼絾涔熶笉澶熼珮鏄?Acalmlookatthenumbers,then,suggeststhattheoddsofacollectiveG20blundertowardsrecovery-wreckingausteritythisyeararelow.Therealdangerofthecurrentembraceof\nausterityisnotthatitisreckless,butthatitisthoughtless鈥攎issinganopportunitytomakethepolicychangesthatwillhelpeconomiesmostinthefuture.鍐烽潤鍦扮湅涓€涓嬭繖浜涙暟瀛楋紝鍙互鍙戠幇锛?0鍥介泦鍥粖骞寸姱闆嗕綋瀹炶鏂€佺粡娴庡鑻忕殑绱х缉鏀跨瓥杩欐牱鎰氳牏閿欒鐨勫嚑鐜囧緢浣庛€傚綋鍓嶆嫢鎶ょ揣缂╂柟妗堢殑鐪熸鍗遍櫓涓嶅湪浜庡叾椴佽幗锛岃€屽湪浜庤€冭檻涓嶅懆锛欸20閿欏け浜嗕竴涓渶鍒╀簬鏈潵缁忔祹鍙戝睍鐨勬斂绛栬皟鏁寸殑鑹満銆?First,mostrich-countrygovernmentsarebeinginsufficientlyboldaboutreforms,suchasraisingthestatutoryretirementage,whichimprovepublicfinancesinthemediumtermwithoutdentingdemandnow.Second,proponentsoffiscalausterityareputtingdisproportionateweightonbudgetdisciplineasasolutiontotherichworld鈥檚ills,underplayingtheimportanceofstructural,supply-sidemeasures.InEuroperegulatoryreformisessentialtoimprovegrowthprospectsinprudentandprofligatecountriesalike:\nGermanyneedstoboostitsunderdevelopedservicesector,forexample;Spainmustmakeiteasiertofireitscivilservants.棣栧厛锛屽鏁板彂杈惧浗瀹剁殑鏀垮簻鏃犲姏杩涜澶ц儐鏀归潻锛屾瘮濡傛彁楂樻硶瀹氶€€浼戝勾榫?--杩欏彲浠ユ敼鍠勪腑鏈熷叕鍏辫储鏀跨姸鍐佃€屼笉浼氬墛寮卞綋浠婇渶姹傘€傚叾娆★紝璐㈡斂绱х缉鐨勬敮鎸佽€呰繃浜庡€氶噸灏嗛绠楀埗搴︿綔涓鸿В鍐冲彂杈惧浗瀹剁粡娴庤悗闈＄殑鏂规锛岃€屼笉澶熼噸瑙嗙粨鏋勬€т緵缁欑鎺柦鐨勯噸瑕佹€с€傛娲茬殑鐩戠浣撳埗鏀归潻瀵逛簬璐㈡斂璋ㄦ厧鍜岄摵寮犳尌闇嶇殑鍥藉鏀瑰杽缁忔祹澧為暱鍓嶆櫙蹇呬笉鍙皯锛氫緥濡傦紝寰峰浗闇€瑕佸姞蹇彂灞曞叾娆犲彂杈剧殑鏈嶅姟涓氾紱瑗跨彮鐗欏垯蹇呴』鍒涢€犳潯浠朵娇鍏舵洿鏄撹В鑱樻斂搴滃叕鍔″憳銆?Whiletheyareinthemoodfortoughdecisions,governmentsshouldbroadentheirhorizontoincludethemeasuresthatwillmaketheireconomiesfitter,andgrowmorerapidly,inthelongrun.Fastergrowth,afterall,isthesurestroutetoabetterfiscaloutlook.褰撴斂搴滄湁蹇冩儏鍘诲仛涓ュ帀鐨勫喅绛栨椂锛屽簲璇ュ皢鍏惰閲庡紑鎷撹嚦娑电洊闀挎湡鍐呭彲浠ヤ娇缁忔祹鏇村仴搴枫€佸闀挎洿杩呴€熺殑鎺柦銆傛瘯绔燂紝杈冨揩鐨勭粡娴庡闀挎墠鏄洿鏈夊埄浜庤储鏀跨姸鍐电殑鏈€纭垏閫斿緞銆?\n銆愭敞1銆戞枃绔犺http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/07/madmen-in-authority/闄勪欢:鎮ㄩ渶瑕佺櫥褰曟墠鍙互涓嬭浇鎴栨煡鐪嬮檮浠躲€傛病鏈夊笎鍙凤紵娉ㄥ唽鎴愪负ECOer鏀惰棌鍒嗕韩鏉ヨ€呭涓撮珮灞憋紝寰€鑰呬互瑙傞€濇按angleyu2007鍙戠煭娑堟伅鍔犱负濂藉弸angleyu2007褰撳墠鍦ㄧ嚎UID77969甯栧瓙606涓婚115绮惧崕3绉垎151绉疮84鐐?鐜伴噾768GBP鍘熷垱璇戜綔115绡?鏈懆涔嬫槦0娆?濂栧姳璇戞枃5娆?鏉ユ簮缃戠珯閾炬帴闃呰鏉冮檺100鎬у埆鐢?鍦ㄧ嚎鏃堕棿433灏忔椂娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-10-28鏈€鍚庣櫥褰?010-6-22瑙佷範鐗堜富甯栧瓙606绉垎151鍘熷垱璇戜綔115绡?娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-10-282妤?鍙戣〃浜?2010-6-1212:22|鍙湅璇ヤ綔鑰?鏈笘鏈€鍚庣敱angleyu2007浜?2010-6-1309:51缂栬緫TE璇昏€呰瘎浠凤細Jun11th201012:14GMThabitswrote:Thisisagoodarticle.Itisreasonableandlogical,justlikewhatthecountriesshouldbe\ndoing.Thearticleisveryrightinthatifthecountriescuttooharditcouldcauseadepressionoradeeprecession,doingitslowlyallowsfortherealitytosetinandpeople'semotionsandpsychtoadjustsotherealitystaysintandemwithpeoplesabilitytomakesenseofitall.Hopefullychilledmindswillprevailwilljustenoughwarmth.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------璇勬瀽锛?\n杩欑瘒绀捐灏卞綋鍓嶄笘鐣岀粡娴庡鑻忚儗鏅笅搴旇閲囧彇浣曠鎺柦杩涜浜嗗垎鏋愶紝鏂囩珷璁や负鈥滆緝蹇殑缁忔祹澧為暱鎵嶆槸鏇存湁鍒╀簬璐㈡斂鐘跺喌鐨勬渶纭垏閫斿緞鈥濓紝鑰屼笉搴旇鈥滅珛鍗崇潃鎵嬪疄鏂戒竴濂椾弗鏍肩殑棰勭畻鍓婂噺鏂规鈥濄€備互鍏嬮瞾鏍兼浖涓轰唬琛ㄧ殑鈥滆澶氬嚡鎭╂柉瀛︽淳鐨勭粡娴庡瀹朵滑鎰熷埌鍚冩儕锛屼粬浠涓哄ぇ骞呭墛鍑忛绠楀皢灏嗘柇閫佹湰宸茶剢寮变笉鍫殑缁忔祹澶嶈嫃锛岀户鑰屼娇鍙戣揪鍥藉闄峰叆閫氳揣绱х缉鐨勫洶澧冣€濄€傛枃绔犺瘎浠?0鍥介泦鍥㈢殑棰勭畻鍓婂噺鏂规鈥滆櫧涓嶆剼锠紝浣嗕篃涓嶅楂樻槑鈥濓紝涓嶆剼锠㈢殑鐞嗙敱鏄繖涓€鎺柦鈥滅姱閿欑殑鏈虹巼寰堜綆鈥濓紱涓嶅楂樻槑鐨勭悊鐢辨槸鈥淕20閿欏け浜嗕竴涓渶鍒╀簬鏈潵缁忔祹鍙戝睍鐨勬斂绛栬皟鏁寸殑鑹満鈥濄€傗€滆丹瀛楀墛鍑忕煭鏈熷唴瀵圭粡娴庡仛鍑虹殑璐＄尞骞朵笉鍗佸垎鏄捐憲锛涚揣缂╄繃鏃╁嵄闄╄嚦鏋侊細1937骞寸編鍥藉ぇ钀ф潯鍜?997骞存棩鏈粡娴庢场娌殑鐮寸伃杩欎袱渚嬪啀鏄庢樉涓嶈繃銆傗€?绀捐鍊惧悜浜庤繖浜涙帾鏂斤細鎻愰珮娉曞畾閫€浼戝勾榫勶紱鏀归潻娆ф床鐩戠浣撳埗锛涘埗瀹氱粡娴庡闀挎柟妗堬紱缁存寔褰撳墠璐㈡斂鏀跨瓥锛?鏍囬鈥淎cuttoofar?璧ゅ瓧鍓婂噺杩囧ご浜嗗悧?鈥?鍥炵瓟锛歽es鏉ヨ€呭涓撮珮灞憋紝寰€鑰呬互瑙傞€濇按TOPxueluoxiatian鍙戠煭娑堟伅鍔犱负濂藉弸xueluoxiatian褰撳墠绂荤嚎UID63712甯栧瓙18涓婚2绮惧崕0绉垎4绉疮0鐐?鐜伴噾20GBP鍘熷垱璇戜綔4绡?鏈懆涔嬫槦0娆?濂栧姳璇戞枃0娆?鏉ユ簮鎼滅储寮曟搸闃呰鏉冮檺10鍦ㄧ嚎鏃堕棿4灏忔椂娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-5-9鏈€鍚庣櫥褰?010-6-22鍒濈骇澹畼甯栧瓙18绉垎4鍘熷垱璇戜綔4绡?娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-5-93妤?鍙戣〃浜?2010-6-1219:28|鍙湅璇ヤ綔鑰?thetwoarticlesreallyhavealotincommon,butyourtranslationismoreonthepoint.Ireallywishtolearnsthfromyouifihavethe\nauthoritytosendmessage鈥︹€?鐬棿鐨勫鎯?TOPangleyu2007鍙戠煭娑堟伅鍔犱负濂藉弸angleyu2007褰撳墠鍦ㄧ嚎UID77969甯栧瓙606涓婚115绮惧崕3绉垎151绉疮84鐐?鐜伴噾768GBP鍘熷垱璇戜綔115绡?鏈懆涔嬫槦0娆?濂栧姳璇戞枃5娆?鏉ユ簮缃戠珯閾炬帴闃呰鏉冮檺100鎬у埆鐢?鍦ㄧ嚎鏃堕棿433灏忔椂娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-10-28鏈€鍚庣櫥褰?010-6-22瑙佷範鐗堜富甯栧瓙606绉垎151鍘熷垱璇戜綔115绡?娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-10-284妤?鍙戣〃浜?2010-6-1221:55|鍙湅璇ヤ綔鑰?鍥炲3#xueluoxiatianifihavetheauthoritytosendmessage?Er,sorrytobotheryou,onreflection,ireallycannotunderstandtheinternalmeaningofyourwordsTOP\nHarry1028鍙戠煭娑堟伅鍔犱负濂藉弸Harry1028褰撳墠绂荤嚎UID95014甯栧瓙303涓婚0绮惧崕0绉垎11绉疮10鐐?鐜伴噾109GBP鍘熷垱璇戜綔6绡?鏈懆涔嬫槦0娆?濂栧姳璇戞枃0娆?鏉ユ簮鍏朵粬闃呰鏉冮檺100鍦ㄧ嚎鏃堕棿67灏忔椂娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2010-4-1鏈€鍚庣櫥褰?010-6-22ECO瑙佷範缂栧甯栧瓙303绉垎11鍘熷垱璇戜綔6绡?娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2010-4-15妤?鍙戣〃浜?2010-6-1300:37|鍙湅璇ヤ綔鑰?鏆楁矡楸兼帴鐮?YOUcouldbeforgivenforbelievingthatagreatchangeinglobaleconomicpolicyhasjusttakenplace.浣犲簲璇ュ纭俊鍏ㄧ悆缁忔祹鏀跨瓥鍒氬彂鐢熼噸澶у彉鍖栬〃绀鸿皡瑙ｃ€?======forgivesomeoneforsomethingtopardonsomeoneforsomething.VisitorstoKualaLumpurcouldbeforgivenforthinkingthattheyhavelandedinahighlydevelopednation.浣犵浉淇′笘鐣岀粡娴庢斂绛栧垰鍙戠敓浜嗛噸澶у彉鍖栨槸鍙互鐞嗚В鐨?鍙互璋呰В鐨勩€?\ncommitmenttoKeynesiandeficitspending.鍑仼鏂富涔夎丹瀛楀紑鏀殑闆嗕綋鎵胯======淇″Insteaditarguesthat鈥渃ountrieswithseriousfiscalchallengesneedtoacceleratethepaceofconsolidation.鈥?鐩稿弽锛岃鏂囦欢璁や负锛屸€滈潰涓翠弗宄昏储鏀胯€冮獙鐨勫浗瀹讹紝蹇呴』鍔犲揩宸╁浐姝ヤ紣鈥濄€?======consolidation杩欓噷搴旂悊瑙ｄ负fiscalconsolidation锛岃储鏀跨揣缂╋紝璐㈡斂鏁撮】1璇勫垎浜烘暟angleyu2007:鏆楁矡楸艰阿浜嗙幇閲?+5GBPTheoneabsolutelyunselfishfriendthatmancanhaveinthisselfishworld---theonethatneverdesertshim,theonethatneverprovesungratefulortreacherous---ishisdog.TOPHarry1028鍙戠煭娑堟伅鍔犱负濂藉弸Harry1028褰撳墠绂荤嚎UID95014甯栧瓙303涓婚0绮惧崕0绉垎11绉疮10鐐?鐜伴噾109GBP鍘熷垱璇戜綔6绡?鏈懆涔嬫槦0娆?濂栧姳璇戞枃0娆?\n鏉ユ簮鍏朵粬闃呰鏉冮檺100鍦ㄧ嚎鏃堕棿67灏忔椂娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2010-4-1鏈€鍚庣櫥褰?010-6-22ECO瑙佷範缂栧甯栧瓙303绉垎11鍘熷垱璇戜綔6绡?娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2010-4-16妤?鍙戣〃浜?2010-6-1301:20|鍙湅璇ヤ綔鑰?ManyKeynesianeconomistsareaghast,arguingthatsavagebudgetcutswillfellafragilerecoveryandcondemntherichworldtodeflation.PaulKrugman,acolumnistfortheNewYorkTimes,wroteinhisblogofthe鈥渦tterfolly鈥?of鈥渕admeninauthority鈥?浠栦滑璁や负澶у箙鍓婂噺棰勭畻灏嗕娇缁忔祹澶嶈嫃鍙樺緱鑴嗗急涓嶅牚锛岀户鑰屼娇鍙戣揪鍥藉闄峰叆閫氳揣绱х缉鐨勫洶澧冦€傘€婄航绾︽椂鎶ャ€嬬殑涓撴爮浣滃淇濈綏鈥㈠厠椴佹牸鏇硷紙PaulKrugman锛夊湪浠栫殑鍗氬涓挵鍐欎簡涓€绡囥€婃墽鎺屾潈鏌勭殑鐙備汉銆嬨€愭敞1銆戠殑鏂囩珷锛屾寚鍑哄墛鍑忚丹瀛楁槸鈥滃交澶村交灏剧殑鎰氳牏鍋氭硶鈥濄€?======浠栦滑璁や负澶у箙鍓婂噺棰勭畻灏嗘柇閫佹湰宸茶剢寮变笉鍫殑缁忔祹澶嶈嫃锛岀户鑰屼娇鍙戣揪鍥藉闄峰叆閫氳揣绱х缉鐨勫洶澧冦€傛寜銆婄航绾︽椂鎶ャ€嬬殑涓撴爮浣滃淇濈綏鈥㈠厠椴佹牸鏇硷紙PaulKrugman锛夊湪浠栫殑鍗氬涓殑璇存硶锛氭槸鈥滄墽鏀跨柉瀛愮殑鎰氳牏琛屼负鈥濄€?EveninEurope,wherethefocusondeficit\nreductionisgreatest,theimpactwillintheshorttermberelativelymodest(seearticle).鍗充究鏄湪璧ゅ瓧鍓婂噺鏈€涓洪泦涓殑娆ф床锛岃丹瀛楀墛鍑忕煭鏈熷唴瀵圭粡娴庡仛鍑虹殑璐＄尞骞朵笉鍗佸垎鏄捐憲锛堣鏈枃锛夈€?======璧ゅ瓧鍓婂噺鐭湡鍐呭缁忔祹褰卞搷鐩稿閫備腑SpainistheonlybiggishEuropeaneconomyplanningfiscalcutsworthmorethan1%ofGDPthisyear.瑗跨彮鐗欐槸鍞竴涓€涓鍒掑皢棰勭畻璧ゅ瓧鍓婂噺鑷冲崰鍥藉唴鐢熶骇鎬诲€?%浠ヤ笂鐨勬娲茬粡娴庡ぇ鍥姐€?======娑堝噺棰勭畻璧ゅ瓧鎬诲€艰秴杩囧浗鍐呯敓浜ф€诲€?%Butseriousspendingcutswillnotbeginuntilnextyear.浣嗕弗鏍肩殑鏀嚭鍓婂噺瑕佺瓑鍒版槑骞存墠寮€濮嬪疄鏂?======鐪熸鐨?1璇勫垎浜烘暟angleyu2007:鐜伴噾+5GBPTheoneabsolutelyunselfishfriendthatmancanhaveinthisselfish\nworld---theonethatneverdesertshim,theonethatneverprovesungratefulortreacherous---ishisdog.TOPHarry1028鍙戠煭娑堟伅鍔犱负濂藉弸Harry1028褰撳墠绂荤嚎UID95014甯栧瓙303涓婚0绮惧崕0绉垎11绉疮10鐐?鐜伴噾109GBP鍘熷垱璇戜綔6绡?鏈懆涔嬫槦0娆?濂栧姳璇戞枃0娆?鏉ユ簮鍏朵粬闃呰鏉冮檺100鍦ㄧ嚎鏃堕棿67灏忔椂娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2010-4-1鏈€鍚庣櫥褰?010-6-22ECO瑙佷範缂栧甯栧瓙303绉垎11鍘熷垱璇戜綔6绡?娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2010-4-17妤?鍙戣〃浜?2010-6-1301:45|鍙湅璇ヤ綔鑰?鏈笘鏈€鍚庣敱Harry1028浜?2010-6-1301:52缂栬緫Acalmlookatthenumbers,then,suggeststhattheoddsofacollectiveG20blundertowardsrecovery-wreckingausteritythisyeararelow.鍐烽潤鍦扮湅涓€涓嬭繖浜涙暟瀛楋紝鍙互鍙戠幇锛?0鍥介泦鍥粖骞村湪鍙楁尗鍨嬪鑻忕殑绱х缉涓婄姱閿欑殑鏈虹巼寰堜綆銆?======\n20鍥介泦鍥粖骞寸姱闆嗕綋瀹炶鏂€佺粡娴庡鑻忕殑绱х缉鏀跨瓥杩欐牱鎰氳牏閿欒鐨勫嚑鐜囧緢浣庛€?Second,proponentsoffiscalausterityareputtingdisproportionateweightonbudgetdisciplineasasolutiontotherichworld鈥檚ills,underplayingtheimportanceofstructural,supply-sidemeasures.鍏舵锛岃储鏀跨揣缂╃殑鏀寔鑰呭皢棰勭畻绾緥浣滀负瑙ｅ喅鍙戣揪鍥藉缁忔祹钀庨潯鐨勬柟妗堬紝鍦ㄨ繖鏂归潰鎶曞叆浜嗚繃澶氱殑绮惧姏锛岃€屼笉澶熼噸瑙嗙粨鏋勬€т緵缁欑鎺柦鐨勯噸瑕佹€с€?======鍏舵锛岃储鏀跨揣缂╃殑鏀寔鑰呰繃浜庡€氶噸灏嗛绠楀埗搴︿綔涓鸿В鍐冲彂杈惧浗瀹剁粡娴庤悗闈＄殑鏂规锛岃€屼笉澶熼噸瑙嗙粨鏋勬€т緵缁欑鎺柦鐨勯噸瑕佹€с€?Germanyneedstoboostitsunderdevelopedservicesector,forexample渚嬪锛屽痉鍥介渶瑕佸姞蹇彂灞曞叾娆犲彂杈剧殑绉佷汉浼佷笟锛?======鏈嶅姟涓?绗笁浜т笟1璇勫垎浜烘暟angleyu2007:鐜伴噾+5GBPTheoneabsolutelyunselfishfriendthatmancanhaveinthisselfish\nworld---theonethatneverdesertshim,theonethatneverprovesungratefulortreacherous---ishisdog.TOPangleyu2007鍙戠煭娑堟伅鍔犱负濂藉弸angleyu2007褰撳墠鍦ㄧ嚎UID77969甯栧瓙606涓婚115绮惧崕3绉垎151绉疮84鐐?鐜伴噾768GBP鍘熷垱璇戜綔115绡?鏈懆涔嬫槦0娆?濂栧姳璇戞枃5娆?鏉ユ簮缃戠珯閾炬帴闃呰鏉冮檺100鎬у埆鐢?鍦ㄧ嚎鏃堕棿433灏忔椂娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-10-28鏈€鍚庣櫥褰?010-6-22瑙佷範鐗堜富甯栧瓙606绉垎151鍘熷垱璇戜綔115绡?娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-10-288妤?鍙戣〃浜?2010-6-1309:06|鍙湅璇ヤ綔鑰?鍥炲5#Harry1028鍛靛懙绗笁鐐?鈥渃onsolidation杩欓噷搴旂悊瑙ｄ负fiscalconsolidation锛岃储鏀跨揣缂╋紝璐㈡斂鏁撮】鈥?杩欎釜鍓嶉潰鍑虹幇浜嗕竴涓€滆储鏀库€?鍥犳涓嶅繀閲嶅璺熼殢鍘熸枃绠€鏄庢壖瑕?TOP\nangleyu2007鍙戠煭娑堟伅鍔犱负濂藉弸angleyu2007褰撳墠鍦ㄧ嚎UID77969甯栧瓙606涓婚115绮惧崕3绉垎151绉疮84鐐?鐜伴噾768GBP鍘熷垱璇戜綔115绡?鏈懆涔嬫槦0娆?濂栧姳璇戞枃5娆?鏉ユ簮缃戠珯閾炬帴闃呰鏉冮檺100鎬у埆鐢?鍦ㄧ嚎鏃堕棿433灏忔椂娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-10-28鏈€鍚庣櫥褰?010-6-22瑙佷範鐗堜富甯栧瓙606绉垎151鍘熷垱璇戜綔115绡?娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-10-289妤?鍙戣〃浜?2010-6-1309:09|鍙湅璇ヤ綔鑰?鏈笘鏈€鍚庣敱angleyu2007浜?2010-6-1309:15缂栬緫鍥炲6#Harry1028EveninEurope,wherethefocusondeficitreductionisgreatest,theimpactwillintheshorttermberelativelymodest(seearticle).鍗充究鏄湪璧ゅ瓧鍓婂噺鏈€涓洪泦涓殑娆ф床锛岃丹瀛楀墛鍑忕煭鏈熷唴瀵圭粡娴庡仛鍑虹殑璐＄尞骞朵笉鍗佸垎鏄捐憲锛堣鏈枃锛夈€?======璧ゅ瓧鍓婂噺鐭湡鍐呭缁忔祹褰卞搷鐩稿閫備腑绉佷笅搴曡涓洪剻浜虹殑澶勭悊瑕佹洿鍔犲畬缇?\nthe鈥渦tterfolly鈥?of鈥渕admeninauthority鈥?杩欓噷鏄竴绡囨枃绔?鏂囩珷璁や负鍓婂噺璧ゅ瓧褰撳墠骞朵笉鍚堥€?鏄剼锠㈣涓?savagebudgetcutswillfellafragilerecovery浣跨粡娴庡鑻忓彉寰楄剢寮变笉鍫?--纭激锛涙垜绔熺劧涓嶈璇嗚繖涓崟璇?fellvt.鍑诲€掞紱鐮嶄紣锛涙墦鍊?灏嗘柇閫佹湰宸茶剢寮变笉鍫殑缁忔祹澶嶈嫃濡?TOPangleyu2007鍙戠煭娑堟伅鍔犱负濂藉弸angleyu2007褰撳墠鍦ㄧ嚎UID77969甯栧瓙606涓婚115绮惧崕3绉垎151绉疮84鐐?鐜伴噾768GBP鍘熷垱璇戜綔115绡?鏈懆涔嬫槦0娆?濂栧姳璇戞枃5娆?鏉ユ簮缃戠珯閾炬帴闃呰鏉冮檺100鎬у埆鐢?鍦ㄧ嚎鏃堕棿433灏忔椂娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-10-28鏈€鍚庣櫥褰?010-6-22瑙佷範鐗堜富甯栧瓙606绉垎151鍘熷垱璇戜綔115绡?娉ㄥ唽鏃堕棿2009-10-2810妤?鍙戣〃浜?2010-6-1309:26|鍙湅璇ヤ綔鑰?鍥炲7#Harry1028鎴戞妸servicesector鐪嬫垚privatesector浜?鍙﹀涓ゆ潯娑﹁壊鐪熸槸宸уず澶╁伐\nThanksforacceptingmyinvitationTOP12涓嬩竴椤佃繑鍥炲垪琛?涓撴爮Columns=璇戞枃涓撳尯=鏂版敞鍐屼細鍛樺彂璐村尯閫夐WeeklyTopics璧忔瀽Appreciation鏃ユ姤DailyNewsAnalysis鍛ㄦ姤TheWorldThisWeek鍥捐〃DailyChart涓撻SpecialReports绀捐Leaders绮剧补Briefing涓撴爮Columns缇庡浗UnitedStates浜氶潪鎷?AsiaAfrica&Americas娆ф床Europe&Britain鍥介檯International鍟嗕笟Business璐㈢粡Finance&Economics绉戞妧Science&Technology瀛ｅ垔TechnologyQuarterly鏂囪壓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