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EverysilverlininghasacloudThesealingofaPacifictradedealiswelcome・ButsparethecheersOct10th2015|FromtheprinteditionIGlobaltradeSix-monthaverage%changeonayearearlier200810121415Economist.cominUNTILthisweek,theworldhadnotseenabigmultilateraltradepactforover20years・Thedealthathasbrokenthedrought—theTrans-PacificPartnership(TPP),whichcomprisesmultilateral:involvingseveraldifferentcountriesorgroupspact:aformalagreementbetweentwogroups,countries,orpeople,especiallytohelpeachotherortostopfighting:;comprise:toconsistofparticularparts,groupsetc:12countriesinAsiaandtheAmericas,includingtheUnitedStatesandJapan一iswelcome.Butthosewhobelieveinfreetrade,andthebenefitsitbrings,oughtnottomissthebiggerpicture.Thebackdropbackdrop:theconditionsorsituationinwhichsomethinghappensagainstabackdropofsomething•alovestorysetagainstabackdropofwaranddespairtothisweek'sdealisableak、bleak:withoutanythingtomakeyoufeelhappyorhopefulableakfuture/prospect•Thecompanystillhopestofindabuyer,butthefuturelooksbleak・flaw:amistake,mark,orweaknessthatmakessomethingimperfect[=defect]compromise:toreachanagreementinwhicheveryoneinvolvedacceptslessthatwhattheywantedatfirstsbroker:brokeradeal/settlement/treatyetc:toarrangethedetailsofadealetcsothateveryonecanagreetoit:•aceasefireagreementbrokeredbytheUNone.First,thepactitself.Ithasflaws—whatcompromisedoesn^t?—buttheadvantagesoaregreate匚ThenegotiatorswhobrokeredtheagreementinAtlantadidnotjustlowertariffstariff:ataxongoodscomingintoacountryorgoingoutofacountry2coddle:totreatsomeoneinawaythatistookindandgentleandthatprotectsthemfrompainordifficulty:'sector:apartofanareaofactivity,especiallyofbusiness,tradeetc4drawup:drawsomethinguptoprepareawrittendocument,suchasalistorcontract:5visa:anofficialmarkputonyourpassportthatgivesyoupermissiontotemporarilyenterorleaveaforeigncountry:6veiled:aveiledthreat,warning,attack,referenceetcisexpressedsothatitsexactmeaningishiddenorunclear•Afinerainwasbeginningtoveilthehills・7arbitrary:decidedorarrangedwithoutanyreasonorplan,oftenunfairly:sstep:oneofaseriesofthingsthatyoudoinordertodealwithaproblemortosucceed9TheFinePrint(写在文件底部的)保留条款(为该协议的附件,注明保留或限制性的条件)10comprehensive:includingallthenecessaryfacts,details,orproblemsthatneedtobedealtwith[=thorough]:incoddled2sectors3suchasagriculture,butalsodrewup4sharedruleson\neverythingfromvisas5forbusinesstravellerstocompetitionpolicy.Thedeallimitsveiled6formsofprotectionism,suchasspecialtreatmentofstate-ownedfirmsandarbitrary7importbansaftersafetyscares.Thebenefitsofsuchsteps8arehardtoquantify,especiallyasthefineprint9ofthedealhasnotyetbeenreleased,butthemostcomprehensive10assessmentthusfarthusfar:迄今;迄今为止;到目前为止;到这点为止12signatory:oneofthepeople,organizations,orcountriesthatsignsanofficialagreement13tale:astoryaboutexcitingimaginaryevents14legislative:concernedwithmakinglaws:15setback:aproblemthatdelaysorpreventsprogress,ormakesthingsworsethantheywere16authority:officialpermissiontodosomething17fast-track:happeningormakingprogressmorequicklythanisusual:'■votesomethingdown:todefeataplan,lawetcbyvoting•In1999thetownhadvoteddownapetitiontoclosetheschool.19beneficiary:someonewhogetsadvantagesfromanactionorchange20diffuse(adjective):spreadoveralargearea21inefficient:notusingtime,money,energyetcinthebestwayvocal:expressingstrongopinionspublicly,especiallyaboutthingsthatyoudisagreewith2dairyfarm:afarmthathascowsandproducesandsellsmilk3dolesomething—outtogivesomethingsuchasmoney,food,adviceetctomorethanoneperson4subsidy:moneythatispaidbyagovernmentororganizationtomakepriceslower,reducethecostofproducinggoods5saga:alongandcomplicatedseriesofevents,oradescriptionofthis6champion:topubliclyfightforanddefendanaimorprinciple,suchastherightsofagroupofpeople:•Shechampionedthecauseofreligiousfreedom7underscore:toemphasizethetactthatsomethingisimportantortruesshift:achangeinthewaypeoplethinkaboutsomething,inthewaysomethingisdone9contentious:causingalotofargumentanddisagreementbetweenpeople10steer:toguidesomeone'sbehaviourorthewayasituationdevelops11glaring:verybadandverynoticeable[=obvious]12outcast:someonewhoisnotacceptedbythepeopletheyliveamong,orwhohasbeenforcedoutoftheirhome:"linchpin:thelinchpinofsomethingthepersonorthinginagroup,systemetcthatismostimportant,becauseeverythingdependsonthemreckonstheycouldboosttheGDPofitsmembersby1%by2025.Theimpactonemerging-marketsignatories12tothedealislikelytobebyfarthebiggest.AwayfromthebrightspotViewedfromadifferentangle,however,thetale13ofTPPtellsadifferentstory.First,thereisthefactthattheagreementhasbeensohardtosellinAmerica.Ittookmonths,andseverallegislative14setbacks15,beforeBarackObamawontheauthority16tofast-tracka\ncongressionalvoteonTPP.Thedealmaystillbevoteddown,inAmericaorelsewhere・ThosewhowouldsucceedMrObamaaspresidentknowthatTPPholdsfewvotes.ThisweekHillaryClinton,theDemocraticfi'ont-runnerandonceapromoterofTPP,cameoutagainstit.Thebeneficiaries19ofTPP一consumers,aswellasexporters一arenumerous,buttheirpotentialgainsdiffuse20.Bycontrast,inefficient21firmsandfarms,abouttobeexposedtogreaterforeigncompetition,areobviousand\nvocal1.Canada,forexample,limitedthethreattoitsdairyfarmers2anddoledout3abignewsubsidy4・Thesaga5isareminderofhowhardfreetradeistochampion6.7oSecond,theTPPdealunderscorestheshiftawayfromglobalagreements・TheWorldWorldTradeOrganisation,whichisresponsibleforglobaldeals,hasbeentrying,andlargelyfailing,tonegotiateonesince2001.Reachingagreementamongits161members,especiallynowthataveragetariffsaroundtheworldarerelativelylowandtalksarefocusedonmorecontentious9obstaclestotrade,hasprovedalmostimpossible,impossible.Regionaldealsarethenextbestthing,but,bydefinition,theyexcludesomecountries,andsomaysteer10customawayfromthemostefficientproducer.InthecaseofTPP,theglaring11outcast12isChina,thelinchpin13ofmostglobalsupplychains.$2343.2billionUnitedStatesChinaGermanyJapanEXPORTSTOITradeingoodsbyexistingandproposedregionaltradeblocs,2014AUEUNAFTAasASEANMercosurTPPTTIPWhycountriesaresokeentoagreenewtradedealsThird,goodnewsonTPPstandsincontrastto】badnewselsewhere.Cross-bordertradetodayisasmuchabouttheexchangeofdataasitistheflowofgoodsandservices:thisweeksawtheannulmentincontrastto:adifferencebetweenpeople,ideas,situations,thingsetcthatarebeingcompared•Thestocklost60centsashare,incontrasttolastyear,whenitgained21cents・Cross-border:跨境5annulment:toofficiallystatethatamarriageorlegalagreementnolongerexistsbyaEuropeancourtofadealthathadenabledAmericanAmericanfirmstotransfercustomerdataacrosstheAtlantic.Conventionaltradefacesevenstrongerheadwindsheadwind:awindthatblowsdirectlytowardsyouwhenyouaremovingvolume:thetotalamountofsomething,especiallywhenitislargeorincreasing・Thevolume'ofgoodsshippedinthefirsthalfofthisyearwasjust1.9%higherthaninthesameperiodof2014,farbelowitslong-termaveragegrowthof5%.ThisreflectsnotonlyChina,ssoggysoggy:unpleasantlywetandsoftdemandforimports一athreattothedevelopingeconomies\nthatsupplyit一butalsotheaccumulationofminormeasuresthatsiltupsiltup:ifsomethingsiltsuporissiltedup,itbecomesfilledwithsiltglobaltrade.DealslikeTPParethemosteffectivewaytoreversethissorrytrend,byreducingtariffsandotherobstaclestotrade.Optimistshopeitcannowbeexpanded,toincludeChinaandothers.Sadly,experiencesuggeststhatwillbehard.跨太平洋合作伙伴银边背后总有乌云缔结太平洋贸易协定值得欢迎,但莫急欢呼直至木周之前,全球已有20多年没有签订过大型多边贸易协定了。打破这一困局的《跨太平洋合作伙伴协定》(TPP)值得欢迎,它涵盖了包括美国和日本在内的12个亚洲和美洲国家。但是,信奉自由贸易及其益处的人们不应忽略大环境:本周缔结这一协定的背景颇为惨淡。首先是协定本身。它有缺陷(哪个折衷方案会没有缺陷呢?),但好处更多。在亚特兰大谈判协定的各国代表并不只是降低了农业等备受保护产业的关税,还拟定了从商务签证到竞争政策等方方面面的共享规则。这一协议限制了隐性的贸易保护主义,例如国有公司享有特别待遇,以及在安全恐慌事件后做出任意武断的进口禁令。这些措施的效益难以量化,尤其协定的细节条款尚未披露。但迄今为止最全面的评定估计,到2025年,它们能够推动协议成员国的GDP增长1%,这可能是到目前为止对新兴市场签署国最大的正面影响。亮点之外然而,从另一个角度看,TPP的传奇所讲述的却是一个不同的故事。首先,这一协议在美国历尽波折。奥巴马耗时数月、在国会屡次受挫后才获得“贸易促进授权”,将TPP直接提交国会表决。在美国或其他国家,该协议仍可能被否决。奥巴马可能的继任者知道TPP难以赢得很多支持。呼声很高的民主党候选人希拉里曾经支持TPP,本周也站出来反对。不计其数的消费者和出口商是TPP的受益者,但他们的潜在收益分散。相比之下,那些低效的公司和农场将面对更激烈的外国竞争,而它们更能引起关注并表示反对。例如,加拿大限制了对该国奶农的威胁,并发放了大量新补贴。这一事例提示了要维护自由贸易殊为不易。第二,TPP突显了脱离全球协定的方向。负责全球协定的世界贸易组织自2001年起就曾试图达成一项全球贸易协定,但基本失败。事实证明,要在它的161个成员国间达成协议几无可能,尤其如今全球平均关税相对较低,而谈判侧重于更具争议的贸易壁垒。区域协定是仅次于全球协定的最佳选择,但是顾名思义,它们把一些国家排除在外,因而会使贸易远离最有效率的生产商。就TPP而言,最引\n人注目的局外人是中国,它是大多数全球供应链的枢纽。第三,TPP的达成是好消息,但其他领域却有诸多坏消息。今日的跨境贸易不仅\n仅是商品和服务的流通,也是数据的交换。木周,欧洲法院废除了之前的一项协议,该协议使得美国公司可以将客户数据送往大西洋彼岸储存。传统贸易面临更加强劲的顶头风。今年上半年货运量只比2014年同期高出1.4%,远低于5%的长期平均增长率。这不仅反映出中国进口需求的疲软一一这对提供出口的发展中国家是个威胁——也反映出各种较小措施的叠加对全球贸易的阻碍。TPP这类协议的出台可以通过降低关税和消除贸易壁垒,最有效地扭转上述令人遗憾的趋势。乐观派希望现在TPP能够扩大范围,将中国和其他国家纳入进来。不幸的是,经验告诉我们,这将非常困难。