考研经济学人练习 27页

第九周《经济学人》翻译练习GladtobegreyType:shortTime:THErecessionof2008-09wasremarkableinrichcountriesforitsintensity,thesubsequentrecoveryforitsweakness.Thelabourmarkethasalsobrokentherules,asnewresearchfromtheOECD,athink-tankofmainlyrichcountries,showsinitsannualEmploymentOutlook.Youngpeoplealwayssufferinrecessions.Employersstophiringthem;andtheyoftengetridofnewrecruitsbecausetheyareeasiertosack.Butinpreviousepisodes,suchastherecessionsofthe1970s,1980sand1990s,olderworkerswerealsobootedout.Thistimeisdifferent.Duringthefinancialcrisisin2008,andsince,theyhavedonebetterthanotheragegroups.Theresearchersfocusonmovementsin“non-employment”asashareofthetotalpopulationinthreeagegroupsbetweenthefinalquartersof2007\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习and2012.Thismeasurehastheadvantageofincludingnotjustunemployment,wherepeoplearelookingforwork,butalsoinactivity,wherepeoplearenotseekingjobs.Whereastheaveragenon-employmentrateintheOECDhasrisenbyfourpercentagepointsamongyoungpeopleandbyone-and-a-halfpointsamong25-to54-year-olds,ithasfallenbytwopointsamongthe55-64agegroup(seechart).Whyhaveolderemployeesdonesowell?InsomesouthernEuropeancountriestheybenefitfromjobprotectionnotaffordedtoyoungerworkers,butthatdidnotreallyhelptheminpastrecessions.Whathaschanged,saysStefanoScarpetta,headoftheOECD’semploymentdirectorate,isthatfirmsnowbearthefullcostsofgettingridofolderstaff.Inthepastearly-retirementschemesprovidedbygovernments(inthemistakenbeliefthatthesewouldhelpyoungpeople)madeitcheapertopushgrey-hairedworkersoutofthedoor.Thesehavelargelystopped.\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习Joblossesamongolderworkershavealsobeenmorethanoffsetbyfallsininactivity,reflectingforcesthatwerealreadyapparentbeforethecrisis.Olderworkersarehealthierthantheyusedtobeandworkislessphysicallydemanding.Theyarealsomoreattractivetoemployersthanpriorgenerations.Today’s55-to64-year-oldsaretheadvancesquadofthepost-warbaby-boomerswhobenefitedfrombettereducationthantheirpredecessors.Olderworkersnowhaveasharperincentivetostayinemploymentbecauseoftheimpactofthecrisisonwealth.InBritain,forexample,workerswhorelyonprivatepensionshavebeenadverselyaffectedbylowerreturnsontheirinvestmentsandbypoorannuityrateswhentheyconverttheirsavingsintoregularincome.Manywillarguethatolderworkershavedonebetterattheexpenseoftheyoung.Thatviewiswrongheaded.First,itisafallacythatajobgainedfor\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习onepersonisajoblostforanother;thereisnofixed“lumpoflabour”.Andsecond,asthereportshows,youngandoldpeoplearebyandlargenotsubstitutesintheworkplace.Theydodifferenttypesofworkindifferenttypesofoccupation:youngerpeoplegravitatetoITfirms,forexample,whereasolderfolktendtobeemployedinmoretraditionalindustries.Thereareplentyofthingsthatshouldbedonetohelptheyoungjobless,butshuntingolderworkersoutoftheworkplaceisnotoneofthem.TheGreatDecelerationType:longTime:\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习Theemerging-marketslowdownisnotthebeginningofabust.Butitisaturning-pointfortheworldeconomy.WHENachampionsprinterfallsshortofhisbestspeeds,ittakesawhiletodeterminewhetherheistemporarilyonpoorformorhaspermanentlylosthisedge.Thesameistruewithemergingmarkets,theworldeconomy's21st-centurysprinters.Afteradecadeofsurginggrowth,inwhichtheyledaglobalboomandthenhelpedpulltheworldeconomyforwardsinthefaceofthefinancialcrisis,theemerginggiantshaveslowedsharply.Chinawillbeluckyifitmanagestohititsofficialtargetof7.5%growthin2013,afarcryfromthedouble-digitratesthatthecountryhadcometoexpectinthe2000s.GrowthinIndia(around5%),BrazilandRussia(around2.5%)isbarelyhalfwhatitwasattheheightoftheboom.Collectively,emergingmarketsmay(just)matchlastyear'spaceof5%.Thatsoundsfastcomparedwiththesluggishrichworld,butitistheslowest\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习emerging-economyexpansioninadecade,barring2009whentherichworldslumped.Thismarkstheendofthedramaticfirstphaseoftheemerging-marketera,whichsawsucheconomiesjumpfrom38%ofworldoutputto50%(measuredatpurchasing-powerparity,orPPP)overthepastdecade.Overthenexttenyearsemergingeconomieswillstillrise,butmoregradually.Theimmediateeffectofthisdecelerationshouldbemanageable.Butthelonger-termimpactontheworldeconomywillbeprofound.RunningoutofpuffInthepast,periodsofemerging-marketboomhavetendedtobefollowedbybusts(whichhelpsexplainwhysofewpoorcountrieshavebecomerichones).Adeterminedpessimistcanfindreasonstofrettoday,pointinginparticulartotherisksofanevenmoredrasticdecelerationinChinaorofa\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习suddenglobalmonetarytightening.Butthistimeabroademerging-marketbustlooksunlikely.Chinaisinthemidstofaprecariousshiftfrominvestment-ledgrowthtoamorebalanced,consumption-basedmodel.Itsinvestmentsurgehaspromptedplentyofbaddebt.Butthecentralgovernmenthasthefiscalstrengthbothtoabsorblossesandtostimulatetheeconomyifnecessary.Thatisaluxuryfewemergingeconomieshaveeverhad.Itmakesdisastermuchlesslikely.Andwithrich-worldeconomiesstillfeeble,thereislittlechancethatmonetaryconditionswillsuddenlytighten.Eveniftheydid,mostemergingeconomieshavebetterdefencesthaneverbefore,withflexibleexchangerates,largestashesofforeign-exchangereservesandrelativelylessdebt(muchofitindomesticcurrency).That'sthegoodnews.Thebadnewsisthatthedaysofrecord-breakingspeedareover.China'sturbochargedinvestmentandexportmodelhasrun\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习outofpuff.Becauseitspopulationisageingfast,thecountrywillhavefewerworkers,andbecauseitismoreprosperous,ithaslessroomforcatch-upgrowth.TenyearsagoChina'sperpersonGDPmeasuredatPPPwas8%ofAmerica's;nowitis18%.Chinawillkeeponcatchingup,butataslowerclip.Thatwillholdbackotheremerginggiants.Russia'sburstofspeedwaspropelledbyasurgeinenergypricesdrivenbyChinesegrowth.Brazilsprintedaheadwiththehelpofaboomincommoditiesanddomesticcredit;itscurrentcombinationofstubborninflationandslowgrowthshowsthatitsunderlyingeconomicspeedlimitisalotlowerthanmostpeoplethought.ThesameistrueofIndia,wherenear-double-digitannualrisesinGDPledpoliticians,andmanyinvestors,toconfusethepotentialforrapidcatch-up(ayoung,poorpopulation)withitsinevitability.India'sgrowthratecouldbepushedupagain,butnotwithoutradicalreforms—andalmostcertainlynottothepeakpaceofthe2000s.\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习TheGreatDecelerationmeansthatboomingemergingeconomieswillnolongermakeupforweaknessinrichcountries.WithoutastrongerrecoveryinAmericaorJapan,orarevivalintheeuroarea,theworldeconomyisunlikelytogrowmuchfasterthantoday'slacklustrepaceof3%.Thingswillfeelrathersluggish.Itwillalsobecomeincreasinglyclearhowunusualthepastdecadewas(seearticle).ItwasdominatedbythescaleofChina'sboom,whichwaspeculiarlydisruptivenotjustasaresultofthecountry'simmensesize,butalsobecauseofitssurgeinexports,thirstforcommoditiesandbuild-upofforeign-exchangereserves.Infuture,morebalancedgrowthfromabroaderarrayofcountrieswillcausesmallerripplesaroundtheworld.AfterChinaandIndia,thetennext-biggestemergingeconomies,fromIndonesiatoThailand,haveasmallercombinedpopulationthanChinaalone.GrowthwillbebroaderandlessreliantontheBRICs(asGoldmanSachsdubbedBrazil,Russia,IndiaandChina).\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习Corporatestrategistswhoassumedthatemergingeconomieswereonastraightlineofultra-quickgrowthwillneedtorevisittheirspreadsheets;insomeyearsarejuvenated,shale-gas-firedAmericamaybeasprightlierbetthansomeoftheBRICs.Butthebiggestchallengewillbeforpoliticiansintheemergingworld,whoseperformancewillpropel—orretard—growth.SofarChina'sseemthemostalertandcommittedtoreform.VladimirPutin'sRussia,bycontrast,isadozyresource-basedkleptocracywhosecustomersareshiftingtoshalegas.Indiahasdemographyonitsside,butbothitandBrazilneedtorecovertheirreformistzeal—ordisappointtherisingmiddleclasseswhorecentlytooktothestreetsinDelhiandSãoPaulo.Theremayalsobeachangeintheeconomicmoodmusic.Inthe1990s“theWashingtonconsensus”preached(sometimesarrogantly)economicliberalisationanddemocracytotheemergingworld.Forthepastfewyears,withChinasurging,WallStreetcrunched,Washingtoningridlockandthe\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习eurozonecommittingsuicide,theoldliberalveritieshavebeenquestioned:statecapitalismandauthoritarianmodernisationhavebeeninvogue.“TheBeijingconsensus”providedanexcuseforbothautocratsanddemocratstoabandonliberalreforms.Theneedforgrowthmayreviveinterestinthem,andtheWestmayevenrecoveralittleofitsself-confidence.Gladtobegrey长白头发是好事情?Olderworkershavefaredunusuallywellsincethefinancialcrisis自从2008年金融危机以来,年纪大的工人得到的待遇异乎寻常的优厚Jul20th2013|Fromtheprintedition1THErecessionof2008-09wasremarkableinrichcountriesforitsintensity,thesubsequentrecoveryforitsweakness.Thelabourmarkethasalsobrokentherules,asnewresearchfromtheOECD,athink-tankofmainlyrichcountries,showsinitsannualEmploymentOutlook.对于世界上的富国而言,2008年至2009年的经济衰退影响巨大。同时引起人们注意的是,危机过后这些国家的复苏之路疲态尽显。而\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习OECD(经济合作与发展组织,这一智库主要是为发达国家的)年度《就业展望》(EmploymentOutlook)中的最新研究表明,劳动力市场也出现了反常的变化。2Youngpeoplealwayssufferinrecessions.Employersstophiringthem;andtheyoftengetridofnewrecruitsbecausetheyareeasiertosack.Butinpreviousepisodes,suchastherecessionsofthe1970s,1980sand1990s,olderworkerswerealsobootedout.Thistimeisdifferent.Duringthefinancialcrisisin2008,andsince,theyhavedonebetterthanotheragegroups.一旦经济衰退来袭,身处困境的总会有年轻人的身影。雇主不再继续雇佣他们。因为年轻人解雇起来比较方便,所以老板经常会先炒掉他们。不过即使如此,上世纪70-90年代发生的历次衰退中,年长的职员一般也很难独善其身。然而这次情形有所不同。自从2008年金融危机以来,年长雇员相比其他年龄段的员工,受到的冲击则较为有限。3Theresearchersfocusonmovementsin“non-employment”asashareofthetotalpopulationinthreeagegroupsbetweenthefinalquartersof2007and2012.Thismeasurehastheadvantageofincludingnotjust\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习unemployment,wherepeoplearelookingforwork,butalsoinactivity,wherepeoplearenotseekingjobs.Whereastheaveragenon-employmentrateintheOECDhasrisenbyfourpercentagepointsamongyoungpeopleandbyone-and-a-halfpointsamong25-to54-year-olds,ithasfallenbytwopointsamongthe55-64agegroup(seechart).研究人员将总人口划分了三个年龄组,分别比较观察了07年四季度至12年四季度,每组“无业人口”与各自人口总数的比例变化。研究“无业人口”的方法优势在于其研究对象不仅包括失业人员,还包括没有择业行为的人。区别就在于前者正在找工作,后者没有在找工作。OECD数据显示,虽然青年平均无业人口比例上涨4个百分点,25-54岁人员上涨1.5个百分点,但是55-64年龄段却下降2个百分点(见图表)。4Whyhaveolderemployeesdonesowell?InsomesouthernEuropeancountriestheybenefitfromjobprotectionnotaffordedtoyoungerworkers,butthatdidnotreallyhelptheminpastrecessions.Whathaschanged,saysStefanoScarpetta,headoftheOECD’semploymentdirectorate,isthatfirmsnowbearthefullcostsofgettingridofolderstaff.Inthepast\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习early-retirementschemesprovidedbygovernments(inthemistakenbeliefthatthesewouldhelpyoungpeople)madeitcheapertopushgrey-hairedworkersoutofthedoor.Thesehavelargelystopped.年龄较大的工人表现优良的原因在何处?在南欧的一些国家,年纪大的工人享有工作保障的福利,而年龄偏低工人则不包含在内。不过在前几次金融危机期间,工作保障也没有起多大的作用。斯特凡诺•斯卡尔佩塔——OECD就业事务总干事,他认为造成前后迥异的原因在于如今的用人单位如果要辞退年龄大的员工,需要承担全部的费用。过去政府制定的提前退休计划中,把“送花白头发工人出门”的成本的门槛定的很低。政府当时错误的认为这样会帮到年轻人就业,而如今这项计划已基本不再推行。5Joblossesamongolderworkershavealsobeenmorethanoffsetbyfallsininactivity,reflectingforcesthatwerealreadyapparentbeforethecrisis.Olderworkersarehealthierthantheyusedtobeandworkislessphysicallydemanding.Theyarealsomoreattractivetoemployersthanpriorgenerations.Today’s55-to64-year-oldsaretheadvancesquadofthepost-warbaby-boomerswhobenefitedfrombettereducationthantheirpredecessors.\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习虽然年长工人丢掉工作的情况时有发生,但由于求职积极性上升,有工作的年长工人人数反而上升了,这反映出危机之前工人们已经明显地感觉到了压力。现代年龄大的工人身体状况较之于以往健康很多,而且工作对于人力需求也逐步下降。今天,55-64岁的工人算得上是二战后“婴儿潮”的先头部队,他们比前辈接受了更好的教育。所以,与之前几代人的相比,如今这类雇员更容易得到工作。6Olderworkersnowhaveasharperincentivetostayinemploymentbecauseoftheimpactofthecrisisonwealth.InBritain,forexample,workerswhorelyonprivatepensionshavebeenadverselyaffectedbylowerreturnsontheirinvestmentsandbypoorannuityrateswhentheyconverttheirsavingsintoregularincome.由于金融危机对财富的冲击,年长工人继续工作的目的性更加清晰了。比如在英国,首先是投资回报的减少,其次工人将养老账户余额转为固定收入,年金利率惨不忍睹;工人们赖以维系的私人养老金因此受到极为不利的影响。7Manywillarguethatolderworkershavedonebetterattheexpenseoftheyoung.Thatviewiswrongheaded.First,itisafallacythatajobgainedforonepersonisajoblostforanother;thereisnofixed“lumpoflabour”.\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习Andsecond,asthereportshows,youngandoldpeoplearebyandlargenotsubstitutesintheworkplace.Theydodifferenttypesofworkindifferenttypesofoccupation:youngerpeoplegravitatetoITfirms,forexample,whereasolderfolktendtobeemployedinmoretraditionalindustries.Thereareplentyofthingsthatshouldbedonetohelptheyoungjobless,butshuntingolderworkersoutoftheworkplaceisnotoneofthem.或许有不少人认为年龄大的工人做得比较好是以牺牲年轻人为代价换来的。这种观点是不正确的。第一,认为一个人上岗就意味着另一个人下岗,纯属谬误;“劳动总数”并不是固定的。第二,据报道称,在工作中年轻人和年长的人在大多数情况下并不是替换的关系。不同的工作岗位,给二者分配的任务也是不同的:举个例子,年轻人就比较青睐信息技术公司,而老一点的人就倾向于在较为传统的工厂工作。当然,帮助新人摆脱失业困境的方法有千千万,但是把老人赶走绝不是其中之一。\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习[2013.07.27]TheGreatDeceleration金砖四国经济大减速Emergingeconomies\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习新兴经济体TheGreatDeceleration经济大减速Theemerging-marketslowdownisnotthebeginningofabust.Butitisaturning-pointfortheworldeconomy新兴市场减速不是经济大萧条的起点,而是世界经济的转折点WHENachampionsprinterfallsshortofhisbestspeeds,ittakesawhiletodeterminewhetherheistemporarilyonpoorformorhaspermanentlylosthisedge.Thesameistruewithemergingmarkets,theworldeconomy's21st-centurysprinters.Afteradecadeofsurginggrowth,inwhichtheyledaglobalboomandthenhelpedpulltheworldeconomyforwardsinthefaceofthefinancialcrisis,theemerginggiantshaveslowedsharply.如果一个冠军短跑选手跑不出自己的巅峰成绩,我们需要假以时日才能确定这到底是因为暂时的身体欠佳,还是因为永久的锋芒不再。新兴市场算得上21世纪世界经济短跑健将,所以它们的情况也是如此。十年以来,新型经济巨头一直保持高速增长:先是引领全球经济繁荣,后是顶住金融危机的压力拉着世界经济向前发展,但是如今,各大新兴经济体增速明显放缓。\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习Chinawillbeluckyifitmanagestohititsofficialtargetof7.5%growthin2013,afarcryfromthedouble-digitratesthatthecountryhadcometoexpectinthe2000s.GrowthinIndia(around5%),BrazilandRussia(around2.5%)isbarelyhalfwhatitwasattheheightoftheboom.Collectively,emergingmarketsmay(just)matchlastyear'spaceof5%.Thatsoundsfastcomparedwiththesluggishrichworld,butitistheslowestemerging-economyexpansioninadecade,barring2009whentherichworldslumped.就2013年度,中国如果能设法达到官方设定的7.5%目标增速就万幸了,而这个增速比起2000-2010年间中国预期实现的两位数增速,已经差得远了。如今,印度的增速为5%,巴西和俄罗斯的在2.5%左右,这勉强是它们各自巅峰时期的一半。新兴市场的总体增速可能刚刚和去年差不多,达到5%。比起滞慢的发达国家,这增速听起来已经很快了,但是这却是除去发达国家金融暴跌的2009年外,十年以来新兴经济体的最缓慢的扩张。Thismarkstheendofthedramaticfirstphaseoftheemerging-marketera,whichsawsucheconomiesjumpfrom38%ofworldoutputto50%\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习(measuredatpurchasing-powerparity,orPPP)overthepastdecade.Overthenexttenyearsemergingeconomieswillstillrise,butmoregradually.Theimmediateeffectofthisdecelerationshouldbemanageable.Butthelonger-termimpactontheworldeconomywillbeprofound.这标记着新兴市场时期轰轰烈烈的第一阶段终结了。在过去的十年里,新兴经济体占全球产出的比值由38%跃至50%(以购买力平价计算)。在未来的十年里,它们仍会发展提高,但是速度会更缓慢些。这次经济减速,就短期来看,应该应付得过来;但是就长期来说,会对于世界经济产生深远的影响。Runningoutofpuff动力不足Inthepast,periodsofemerging-marketboomhavetendedtobefollowedbybusts(whichhelpsexplainwhysofewpoorcountrieshavebecomerichones).Adeterminedpessimistcanfindreasonstofrettoday,pointinginparticulartotherisksofanevenmoredrasticdecelerationinChinaorofasuddenglobalmonetarytightening.Butthistimeabroademerging-marketbustlooksunlikely.\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习在过去,新兴市场的繁荣期过后,总会迎来萧条期。这也就是为什么鲜有发展中国家蜕变为发达国家。顽固的悲观论总能找到理由焦虑,他们尤其担心中国经济急剧减速,或全球金融突然紧缩所带来的风险。但是就目前来说,新兴市场发生全面崩盘的可能性较低。Chinaisinthemidstofaprecariousshiftfrominvestment-ledgrowthtoamorebalanced,consumption-basedmodel.Itsinvestmentsurgehaspromptedplentyofbaddebt.Butthecentralgovernmenthasthefiscalstrengthbothtoabsorblossesandtostimulatetheeconomyifnecessary.Thatisaluxuryfewemergingeconomieshaveeverhad.Itmakesdisastermuchlesslikely.Andwithrich-worldeconomiesstillfeeble,thereislittlechancethatmonetaryconditionswillsuddenlytighten.Eveniftheydid,mostemergingeconomieshavebetterdefencesthaneverbefore,withflexibleexchangerates,largestashesofforeign-exchangereservesandrelativelylessdebt(muchofitindomesticcurrency).中国正身处于从投资推动型向更均衡的消费推动型转变,这段时期充满了不确定因素。中国投资迅猛增长催生了诸多不良贷款。但是中央政府仍有足够财政实力,既能吸收损失,同时又能在必要的\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习时候采取措施刺激增长。这种奢侈行为其他新兴经济体很难做到。这大大降低了发生经济灾难的可能性。且发达经济体仍然疲软,所以货币政策突然收紧的可能性不大。即便是突然紧缩了,大多新兴经济体都采用了灵活汇率,坐拥大量外汇储备,且负债也相对较少(大多都是本国国债),所以它们如今的防御能力也是史上最强的。That'sthegoodnews.Thebadnewsisthatthedaysofrecord-breakingspeedareover.China'sturbochargedinvestmentandexportmodelhasrunoutofpuff.Becauseitspopulationisageingfast,thecountrywillhavefewerworkers,andbecauseitismoreprosperous,ithaslessroomforcatch-upgrowth.TenyearsagoChina'sperpersonGDPmeasuredatPPPwas8%ofAmerica's;nowitis18%.Chinawillkeeponcatchingup,butataslowerclip.这是好消息。坏消息就是实现破纪录增速的时代已经过去。中国动力十足的投资和出口模式已经累得上气不接下气。由于人口迅速老龄化,中国的劳动力会减少;由于繁荣程度更高,中国的赶超式增长空间也会缩小。十年前,中国以购买力平价计算的人均GDP为美国的8%;如今是美国的18%。中国会继续赶超发展,但是速度会减慢。Thatwillholdbackotheremerginggiants.Russia'sburstofspeedwaspropelledbyasurgeinenergypricesdrivenbyChinesegrowth.Brazilsprintedaheadwiththehelpofaboomincommoditiesanddomesticcredit;\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习itscurrentcombinationofstubborninflationandslowgrowthshowsthatitsunderlyingeconomicspeedlimitisalotlowerthanmostpeoplethought.ThesameistrueofIndia,wherenear-double-digitannualrisesinGDPledpoliticians,andmanyinvestors,toconfusethepotentialforrapidcatch-up(ayoung,poorpopulation)withitsinevitability.India'sgrowthratecouldbepushedupagain,butnotwithoutradicalreforms—andalmostcertainlynottothepeakpaceofthe2000s.中国的减速也会拉其他巨型新兴经济体的后腿。中国经济增长推动了能源价格高涨,由此驱动了俄罗斯的井喷式发展。商品和国内信贷繁荣也让巴西的经济全力冲刺;如今该国通胀居高不下,经济增速迟缓,两者结合表现出其潜在的极限速度大大低于人们的意料。印度得情况也是一样得,曾经近两位数的年均GDP增速让政治家和众多投资者们,仰仗着印度年青的劳动力以及贫穷的人口,一时分不清什么是快速赶超的潜力,什么是快速赶超的必然性。印度的增速有可能再次起飞,但是必须得实施彻底的改革,不过就算起飞也肯定达不到2000-2010年之间的巅峰水平。Manylapsahead漫漫前路\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习TheGreatDecelerationmeansthatboomingemergingeconomieswillnolongermakeupforweaknessinrichcountries.WithoutastrongerrecoveryinAmericaorJapan,orarevivalintheeuroarea,theworldeconomyisunlikelytogrowmuchfasterthantoday'slacklustrepaceof3%.Thingswillfeelrathersluggish.经济大减速意味着欣欣向荣的新兴经济体再也无法弥补发达国家的疲软。美国和日本的经济若不能更强势地复苏,欧盟区若不能实现复兴,要世界经济的增速超过3%这个萎靡不振的速度,几乎是不太可能。到那时,进程将会相当缓慢。Itwillalsobecomeincreasinglyclearhowunusualthepastdecadewas(seearticle).ItwasdominatedbythescaleofChina'sboom,whichwaspeculiarlydisruptivenotjustasaresultofthecountry'simmensesize,butalsobecauseofitssurgeinexports,thirstforcommoditiesandbuild-upofforeign-exchangereserves.Infuture,morebalancedgrowthfromabroaderarrayofcountrieswillcausesmallerripplesaroundtheworld.AfterChinaandIndia,thetennext-biggestemergingeconomies,fromIndonesiatoThailand,haveasmallercombinedpopulationthanChinaalone.Growthwill\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习bebroaderandlessreliantontheBRICs(asGoldmanSachsdubbedBrazil,Russia,IndiaandChina).我们会越来越明白,过去十年的表现是有多么不同寻常。中国的繁荣程度主宰了世界经济大势,除了体量大,出口增长猛烈,商品需求迫切,以及外汇储备雄厚等特点都让中国带给世界的冲击尤为强烈。日后,更多的国家实现的更均衡的增长会减少世界经济的动荡。继中国和印度之后的十大新兴经济体,从印度尼西亚到泰国,它们的人口全部加起来都比不上中国一个国家。实现增长的范围会更广,对金砖四国(高盛所称的“巴西,俄罗斯,印度和中国”四国)的依赖度也会降低。Corporatestrategistswhoassumedthatemergingeconomieswereonastraightlineofultra-quickgrowthwillneedtorevisittheirspreadsheets;insomeyearsarejuvenated,shale-gas-firedAmericamaybeasprightlierbetthansomeoftheBRICs.Butthebiggestchallengewillbeforpoliticiansintheemergingworld,whoseperformancewillpropel—orretard—growth.SofarChina'sseemthemostalertandcommittedtoreform.VladimirPutin'sRussia,bycontrast,isadozyresource-basedkleptocracywhosecustomersareshiftingtoshalegas.Indiahasdemographyonitsside,butbothitandBrazilneedtorecovertheirreformistzeal—ordisappointtherisingmiddle\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习classeswhorecentlytooktothestreetsinDelhiandSãoPaulo.认为新兴经济体呈超快速直线增长的公司战略家需要重新审阅下自己的试算表;再过几年,因页岩油而重新迸发生机的美国都比金砖四国中的几个国家更值得押注。但是,发展中国家最大的挑战,将要由各国的政客承担,他们的表现要不就促增长,要不就阻增长。目前为止,似乎中国警觉度最高,改革的步伐最坚定。与之鲜明对比的是普金统治下的俄国,它是一个萎靡不振,以能源为基础的盗贼主义国家,它的客户都开始转向页岩油了。印度有人口优势,但是它和巴西都需要找回各自的改革热情,不然日益增长的中产阶级会备感失望。最近德里和圣保罗都爆发了中产阶级组织的街头游行。Theremayalsobeachangeintheeconomicmoodmusic.Inthe1990s“theWashingtonconsensus”preached(sometimesarrogantly)economicliberalisationanddemocracytotheemergingworld.Forthepastfewyears,withChinasurging,WallStreetcrunched,Washingtoningridlockandtheeurozonecommittingsuicide,theoldliberalveritieshavebeenquestioned:statecapitalismandauthoritarianmodernisationhavebeeninvogue.“TheBeijingconsensus”providedanexcuseforbothautocratsanddemocratstoabandonliberalreforms.Theneedforgrowthmayreviveinterestinthem,\n第九周《经济学人》翻译练习andtheWestmayevenrecoveralittleofitsself-confidence.经济发展的旋律还是有可能转调。二十世纪九十年代,“华盛顿共识”向新兴经济体经济大肆宣扬了自由和民主,虽然教育的方式有时居高临下。在过去的几年中,中国迅猛增长,而华尔街却遭受重挫,华盛顿陷入僵局,欧元区慢性自杀,这样的情况下,原来的自由真理受到质疑:国家资本主义和中央权威的现代化已经成为一种时尚。“北京共识”为独裁者和民主者都提供了一个摒弃经济自由化改革的借口。但是,对增长的需求会唤起他们对自由化改革的兴趣,发达国家甚至有可能找回一点自信心。