有关宏观调控的不确定性与法律、政策（uncertainty, law and policy concerning macro control） 15页

有关宏观调控的不确定性与法律、政策（Uncertainty,lawandpolicyconcerningmacrocontrol）Uncertainty,lawandpolicyconcerningmacrocontrolFirst,themacro-controloftheuncertaintyandthecausesasthewriterTalebsaidin"blackswan"inonebook,theswanisgenerallywhite,butwhentheblackswan——majorrareeventsthatcannotbepredicted,butincontrarytoexpectation,willchangeeverything.SinceRicardo,thestructureofeconomictheoryhasencounteredadilemma:economicanalysisonlytoeliminateuncertaintyandchangestoeconomicpolicy,andonlycarefullyconsideringtheuncertaintiesandchangesitmayimplement.OneofKeynes'simportantcontributionsistoputuncertaintyatthecenterofallstagesofeconomicdevelopment,andasthestartingpointofmacroeconomicregulationandcontrol.WhenitcomestoKeynes'sworks,peoplewillfirstthinkofemployment,interestandmoneytheory,butinfact,probabilitytheoryisthemostrepresentativeoftheoriginalityofhiswork.Hebelievesthattheworldisessentiallyaperceptiblebutuncertainworld,ortheworldinashortperiodoftimecanbedetermined,butinthelongtermisuncertain,wehavetodoisinanuncertainworldholdwecangraspthe.Keyneshasafamoussaying:"inthelongrun,we'realldead.".Hebelievesthatthebiggesteconomicillsisrisk,uncertaintyandignorancecausedbygovernmentintervention,nottoeliminatetheuncertainty(whichisnotpossiblenornecessary),butbyprovidingservicesandinformation,tomakepeoplebetteruseofreason.Hedeniedtheriskscanbeaccuratelycalculated,putforward\navarietyofunpredictabledemandimpactfactorsinthemacroeconomy,thenegativeimpactwillcauseseriousdeclineinoutput,deflation,positiveimpactwillresultinseriouseconomicoverheatingandinflation.Theunderstandingofuncertaintyconstitutesthefundamentaldifferencebetweenhimandclassicaleconomics.Asweallknow,macroeconomicsandmacro-controlpoliciesarebasedonKeynes'stheory.(1)themainmanifestationsoftheuncertaintyofmacrocontrol:theobjectofmacroeconomicregulation;——theunpredictablenatureofeconomicfluctuations.Thepremiseofmacroeconomicregulationandcontrolistomaketimely,accuratejudgmentsandclearandrationalexpectationsofeconomicfluctuations.However,itisimpossibletoavoidfalseexpectationsandjudgments.Americaneconomistmankunbluntlyeconomicfluctuationsareirregularandunpredictable.Healsosaidthatfluctuationsintheeconomyareoftencalledbusinesscycles,andthetermissometimesmisleading,becauseitseemstosuggestthateconomicfluctuationsfollowaregularandpredictableform.Infact,thereisnolawofeconomicfluctuations,anditisalmostimpossibletopredictmoreaccurately.EconomistSamuelsonalsosaysinflationisoftenunexpected.EconomistStiglitzsummedupfourperspectivesonbusinesscycles.Inadditiontothetraditionaleconomiccycletheorythateconomicfluctuationisregularandpredictable,theotherthree(theactualeconomiccycle,monetarismandneoclassical,newKeynesdoctrineetc.)areoftheviewthateconomicfluctuationislargelyirregularandunpredictable¨.\nForexample,inJuly2007,China'sgeneralconsumerpriceindexsuddenlyjumpedto5.6%.TheriseinCPIwasmainlycausedbytheriseinporkprices.Therefore,economistsandgovernmentofficialsgenerallybelievethatwhenpigsgrowup,porksupplywillincrease.Porkpriceswilldrop,andCPIwillalsodecline.Inshort,Chinainflationisjustapig,donotgetexcitedoveralittlething.However,theinflationsituationdeterioratedrapidly.InFebruary2008,thegrowthratereached8.7%,becomingthehighestincreaseinthepast11years.Atthesametime,thepricerisenotonlyrapidlyfromporktootheragriculturalproducts,butalsofromagriculturalproductstoindustrialproducts.ThePPI,whichhasremainedatalowlevel,hasalsorisenby6.6%.Peoplenowrecognizenowinflationisfarfromjustapig,antiinflationshouldbecomeatoppriorityofthegovernment.However,therearestilldifferentopinionsonthecausesofinflationinchina.Somebelievethatthemaincostdriventypeiscausedbynaturaldisasters,risinglaborcosts,environmentalstandardsstrictly,externalsupplyshocks(crudeoil,ironoreandgrainpricesontheinternationalmarket)andotherfactors.Othersarguethatinflationiscausedbyexcessivedemand.Inthefinalanalysis,moneysupplyisexcessive.On2008Chinesetherewillbewhatkindofeconomicfluctuations,thegovernment'sjudgmenthasexperiencedthreein8months.ThefirstyearisthebeginningoftheDecembercentraleconomicworkconference:doubleprotection,preventeconomicgrowthfrombecomingoverheated,topreventstructuralpriceincreasesfromevolvingintosignificantinflation.Butin2008,\n2,XinhuaissuedbytheStateCouncilin2008workpointsputforwardnewdoubleprevention:bothtopreventtheeconomyfromtherapidtooverheating,butalsotopreventtheeconomicdownturn,toavoidbigupsanddowns.TheannualcentraleconomicworkconferenceheldinJuly,waschangedtoacontrolledinsurance:tocontrolpricesrisetoofastastheprimarytaskofmacroeconomicregulationandcontrol,tocontrolinflationinaprominentposition,butalsotomaintainsteadyandrapideconomicdevelopment.Within8months,andtheobjectofmacro-controlpolicyistochange,theeconomicoperationofthegreatuncertainty,peoplebasicallyisstillinthetrialanderrorstate.Thereasonwhytheeconomicfluctuationisunpredictableisthatthereasonisstillconfusingandinconclusive.MontihastheSith'sconsumptionisnotconclusive,JayVincesunspotsaid,Marx'stheoryofeconomiccrisis,ontheoccurrenceofMischel'snature,Petebearstheinnovationperiod,Keynes'seconomiccycletheory,Neoliberaleconomiccycletheory(thetheoryofeconomiccycleandeconomiccycletheoryandrationalexpectationsschooloftheAustriaSchoolofmonetarybusinesscycletheoryandtheKeynesdoctrine),theneweconomiccycletheory,realbusinesscycletheory,financialcycletheory,etc..AfterthesubprimemortgagecrisisintheUnitedStates,Greenspanwroteinthefinancialtimesdetailinghisviewsonthecrisis.Headmittedthathefailedtotakeappropriatemeasurestoavoidthecrisis,buthedoesnotthinkthereisabettersetoftheoryandmodel,canlethimorotherregulatorstomakecorrectforesight,alsodonotthinkthereisafeasible\nmeasuretoavoidthecrisis.Inotherwords,heacknowledgesthatitisnotGod,andthatifitisnotGod,itiswrong,andheiswrong.Thenonfixityofthecollocationofmacrocontrolmeans.Therearemanymeansofmacroeconomicregulationandcontrol,andthemostimportantonesarefiscalpolicyandmonetarypolicy.However,thetwomethodshavenofixedcollocation,andneeddifferentcombinationsaccordingtodifferentsituations.Generallyspeaking,therearethreekinds:first,thedoubleloosefinancialandmonetarypolicy;thetwoisthetightfiscalandmonetarypolicy;thethreeisthepolicyoftightnessandcollocation.Totalsocialdemandisseriouslylaggingbehindinthetotalsupply,thereisquiteseriousdeflation,doubleloosefiscalandmonetarypolicy;socialtotaldemandisgreaterthanthetotalsupplyofhugeinflation,doubletightfiscalandmonetarypolicy;therearesomeinflation,butnottooserious,oralthoughtheeconomicgrowthrateisrelativelylow,butnotasfortheoveralldecline,thetightnessofmonetarypolicycollocation.Thesethirdtypescanbedividedintotwotypes:loosefinance,tightcurrency,tightfinanceandloosecurrency,whichshouldbedeterminedaccordingtothespecificcircumstances.Therhythmofmacrocontrolisalsouncertain.Sometimesitrequiresasmallstepofgradualfine-tuningorsmoothregulationofrhythm,andsometimesrequiresaradicalstepinthepaceofregulationandcontrol.Thelattercancontroltheeconomicindicatorstothetargetlevelatonetime,theformergraduallyandgraduallyregulateandcontroltheeconomicindicatorstothetargetlevel.Theformeristhebasicmode\nadoptedbywesterncountries,andthelatteristhemodeladoptedbyChinain80andtwentiethCentury.Bothofthemhaveadvantagesanddisadvantages,anditishardforustostipulateakindofrhythmrhythmofmacrocontrol.ItshouldalsobepointedoutthatbesidesthetwomeansofFinanceandmoney,therearealsomeansofscientificandtechnologicalprogress,landsupplyandsoon.TheAmericaneconomyintheReaganandClintonperiodswasabletogetoutofrecession,Allofthesearecloselyrelatedtothedevelopmentofthecutting-edgetechnologyindustrybroughtbythestarwarsduringtheReaganperiodandtheleapforwarddevelopmentoftheinformationtechnologyintheClintonperiod.Chinahastakenmeasurestolimitlandsupplyinmanymacro-controlactivities,andachievedgoodresults.Theuncertaintyoftheeffectofmacrocontrol.Theuncertaintyofmacrocontroleffectismainlymanifestedinthefollowingtwoaspects.First,thecostsandbenefitsofmacro-controlareeasytodiffer.Thecostofmacroeconomicregulationandcontrolismainlymanifestedinthehighunemploymentrateandthesharpdecreaseinthetotalamountofeconomy.ThePhillipscurvedescribesthenegativecorrelationbetweeninflationrateandunemploymentrate:inflationrateislowandunemploymentrateishigh;inflationrateishighandunemploymentrateislow.\nForexample,from1979to,theFedchairmanVolckermanagedtoreduceinflationfromabout10%to4%,butunemploymentrosetotwotimesasmuchashewasjustthechairmanofthefederalreserve.TheOkunrulepointsoutthatwhentheunemploymentrateislessthan2percentagepointsofthesustainableunemploymentrate,theactualGDPwillbe4%lowerthanthepotentialGDPlevel.SomehavestudiedthecostofantiinflationintheUnitedStatesandhavecomeupwithaconsistentanswer.Thesestudiesshowthatthecostofantiinflationin1980~1984yearsisthatabout1dollarsperdecreaseininflation,about300billiondollarsinoutput(accordingtothedollarpricein1996).Mankiwinits"economicsprinciple"intheunemploymentrateandthesacrificeratioasthecostindexofantiinflation.Sacrificerateisdefinedasthepercentageofannualoutputlossintheprocessofreducinginflationby1%.Andsomeresearchresultsshowthateveryl%reductionininflationrate,inthisprocess,mustsacrifice5%oftheproductioneveryyear.GreenspanservedaschairmanoftheFederalReserve,duringtheoveralleconomicprosperity,whatiscalledrecognition.Afterleavingthesubprimemortgagecrisisin2008,manypeoplethinkthattheinitiatorofthecrisisisGreenspan.Hisseriesofgapsbetween2001andyearwastoolarge,whichledtoahugebubbleintheU.S.realestatesector.Afterthebubbleburst,America'seconomicgrowthisweak.Statisticalanalysisshowsthatthereisanobvioussubstitutionrelationshipbetweeninflationandeconomicgrowthinchina.Duringtheperiodofmacroeconomicgovernancein1997,therateofeconomicgrowthdroppedfrom13.5%into10.5%in1995.Theinflationratedroppedfrom24.1%in1994to.3%in1996.Duringthisperiod,therateofeconomicgrowthdecreasedbyonepercentagepoint,\nandtheinflationratedeclinedbyabout5percentagepointsayearlater.Inotherwords,inordertoreducetheinflationratebyonepercentagepointayearlater,theeconomicgrowthrateinthecurrentyearmustbereducedby0.2percentagepoints.Second,thereisasuccessionbetweeneconomicfluctuations.Thatistosay,onekindofeconomicfluctuationisgood,butanotherkindofeconomicfluctuationoftenaccompanieswitheachother,whichiseasytomakepeopleambiguousabouttheeffectoftheformereconomicfluctuation.Forexample,Volckerpusheddownhighinflation,buttriggeredtheworstrecessionintheUnitedStatessincetheGreatDepressionofthe3OinthetwentiethCentury.In1984Chinaappearedseriousinflation,in1985afterthetreatment,justbetteratthebeginningof1986anddeflation;after1986hadbettergovernance,thefourthquarterof1987andtheemergenceofinflation;afteryearsofgovernance,justbetterin1990anddeflation;afterthe1991governance,justgood,1992~1993andtheemergenceofinflation;in1993afterthetreatment,justbetterforyearsanddeflation;after1998yearsofgovernance,andtheemergenceoflocaloverheating.Aneconomistoncesaid,"whatseedsaresownintheboomphase,andtherewillbeaharvestinthedepression?".Ontheotherhand,itcanalsobesaidthatwhatseedwillbesowninthedepressionstageandwhatwillbegainedinthenextroundofeconomicboom.Therefore,Stiglitzsaidthattheeffectofmacrocontrolpolicyhasgreatuncertainty,andtheseuncertaintieshavetwoimportantimplicationsforeconomicpolicy:first,atanytime,\nTheuncertaintyofapolicyinstrumentmaybegreaterthantheuncertaintyofotherpolicyinstruments;two,insomecases,uncertaintycanbequicklyjudged,sothatgovernmentactionscanbeadjustedaccordingly.Inothercases,it'sgoingtotakealongtimetoidentifyuncertainty.Themacro-controlobject——economicfluctuationcanbeunpredictable,actuallydeterminesthenonfixedmacro-controlmeanscollocationmethod,andthemacro-controlmeansthenonfixedcollocationanddeterminestheeffectofmacro-controlofuncertainty,thereisalogicalobviousprogressiverelationshipbetweenthethree.Two)theuncertaintyofmacroeconomiccontrolisdeterminedbytheuncertaintyofeconomicoperation,andtheeconomicoperationhasthecertainty.Wedonotpushtheeconomicuncertaintytoextreme,andbecometheagnosticismofeconomicoperation.Butatthesametime,wereallyhavetoadmitthattheeconomicoperationisuncertainandunpredictable,andtheuncertaintyofmacroeconomiccontrolisdeterminedbytheuncertaintyofeconomicoperation.Contradictionbetweendecisionmakingofmarketsubjectsandsocializedproduction.Undertheconditionofmarketeconomy,thediversificationofownershipleadstothedecentralizationofmarketsubjects.Butthemarketeconomyconditionsofproductionarethesocializationofproduction,therefore,themainmarketofdiversifiedinterestsanddecentralizeddecisionandsocializationofproduction,economicintegration,therearesomecontradictions,notstrongcontrollabilityisanimportantfeatureofthemarketeconomy.Plannedeconomyis\ntryingtosolvethiscontradiction,butitbringsshortageandwaste.Therefore,thereisnobest,onlybetter,weenjoytheadvantagesofmarketeconomyintheallocationofresourcesatthesametime,butalsobearthemarketeconomyisnotstrongcontroltorture.Undertheconditionofmarketeconomy,consumers,producers,suppliersandothermarketplayerswiththeirpsychologicalexpectationsmakedecentralizedeconomicdecision-making,iftheyexpectedoverheating,inflationislikelytooccur;iftheirpsychologicalexpectationstoocold,thereisthepossibilityofdeflation;iftheyexpectedoverheatingandovercoldinconsistency,theremaybestagflation.People'spsychologicalexpectationsarequiteuncertain,soeconomicfluctuationsarecorrespondinglyuncertain.Therefore,theeconomicandeconomiccirclesattachgreatimportancetotheeconomicinformationindexofallwalksoflife.Whyisthepsychologicalanticipationofthemarketsubjectuncertain?Thisisbecauseoftheproblemofinformationasymmetry.Thecausesofasymmetricinformationaremainlythree.Oneistheuncertaintyoflife.Forexample,thefarmer'sfarmoutputdependsnotonlyontheamountofcapitalheinvested,thelandandlabor,butalsoontheclimateinthenextyear,whichthefarmercannotgrasp.Uncertaintybringsaboutincompleteinformation,whichleadstovariousrisksthatpeoplefacewhenmakingdecisions.Thetwoistheasymmetryofinformationdistribution.Thedistributionofinformationamongmarketparticipantsisuneven,andonesideofthemarket\nisoftenunabletogetalltheinformationoftheotherparty.Thethreeistheabilityofeachmarketsubjecttopayinformationcosts.Accesstoinformationcosts,ifthecostistoohightofindinformation,orsomepeoplearenotwillingtopaythecostofaccesstoinformation;andtoreducethecostofinformationorwillingtopaythecostofthepartyisformedontheothersideoftheinformationsuperiority,whichleadstotheinformationasymmetrypattern.DeanofUniversityofVirginiaDardenRobert;Brunersaidthattheworldfinancialcrisisisoftencausedbyafactorofseven.First,therewasaperiodofeconomicbubbleexpansionbeforeeachcrisis.Thetwoisthatthecomplexityofthemarkethasevolvedtotheextentthatpolicymakersarenotfullyawareofthesituation.Thekeytothecrisisisasymmetricinformation.Somepeopleinthemarketknowthesituation,andsomepeopledon'tunderstandit.Thethreeisthateachcrisishassomethingtodowiththelackofresilienceoftheeconomy.Fouristoooptimisticpsychologicalexpectations,peoplebelievethathousingpricesandvaluationswillnotfall,onlyrise.Thefiveisthatregulatorslookontheinflatedeconomicbubble.Thesixisthateverycrisishasamajoreventtodothefuse.Thesevenisthelackofaunifiedresponsetofinancialinstitutionsintheeventofacrisis.Therefore,thepsychologicalexpectationandasymmetricinformationofmarketplayersplayanimportantroleineconomicfluctuation.Economicglobalizationextendsthecontradictionbetweenthedecentralizationofthemarketbodyintheoriginaleconomicbodyandthesocializationofproductiontotheglobalscope.\nHistoricalfactsshowthateconomicglobalizationcaneasilytransfertheeconomicfluctuationofonecountrytoothercountriesthroughthefollowingchannels.Oneisthetransmissionmechanismofinternationaltrade.Thisismainlyduetofluctuationsintheworldmarketpriceofacountry'sdomesticeconomy.Theeconomyofacountrycanbedividedintotwoparts:theopensectorandthenonopensector.Intoday'seconomicglobalization,theoperationoftheopensectorofeachcountryiscloselyrelatedtothepriceoftheworldmarket.Twoisthetransmissionmechanismofinternationalfinance.Thefirstisthetransmissionofcreditrelations.Whenacountry'smajorcreditorbecauseoftheeconomicrecessionorotherreasonstotherecoveryoffunds,theshort-termcreditwillbealotofdrawnback,enterprisesandbankswillfacepaymentandcreditcrisis,eventheoutbreakofnationalandregionalfinancialcrisis.Thesecondisthetransmissionofexchangerate.Theexchangerateistheratioofthetwocurrencies,whichdirectlyaffectstheimportpriceofthecountryandothercountries.Whenacountryannouncesthedevaluationofitscurrency,itwillenhancethecompetitivenessofdomesticenterprisesintheinternationalmarket,butitwillbringdeficitsandunemploymenttoothercountries.Onceagain,thetransmissionofinterestrates.Whentherateofinterestacountryandtheinternationalfinancialmarketinterestrategap,internationalcapitalwillbebasedoninterestrateparityconditionscorrespondingtoenterorout,therebyaffectingtheinterestrateandcapitalsupplyinothercountries,leadingtoinflationrateandinflationratetothesamestepinthe\nworld.Finally,thetransmissionofmonetarypolicy.Theinflationlevelofacountryisdirectlyrelatedtothemonetarypolicyofthecountry.Whenacountryadoptsexpansionarymonetarypolicy,theinflationrateofthecountryishigherthantheinflationrateofothermajorcountries,thecapitalwillflowtotheforeigncountries,soastotransmittheinflationofthecountrytotheforeigncountries.Similarly,whendomesticinflationislowerthanthatofforeigncountries,capitalflows.Inordertoavoidexcessivecapitalflow,thecountryhastoimplementthecorrespondingmonetarypolicy,makingthedomesticinflationrateconsistentwiththeworld,whichledtothespreadofforeigninflationtothedomestic.Thenonfixedformofmacro-controlmeanscollocationisdeterminedbythecomplexityofthecausesofeconomicfluctuations.Economicfluctuationsincludeinflation,deflation,andstagflation.Therearefivekindsofinflation.Demandpullinflation.Theexcessivegrowthoftotaldemandexceedsthetotalsupplyofcommoditiesundertheexistingpricelevel,whichhascausedthegeneralriseinprices.Theexcessivegrowthofaggregatedemandshowsthatthecontinuoussupplyofmoneycausedbyinvestmentexpansionandconsumptionexpansionexceedsthegrowthofsocialcommoditysupply,whichisalsocalledexcessivedemandinflation.Costpushinflation.Pricesaregenerallyrisingbecauseof\nrisingcosts.Thefactorsleadingtotheriseincostaretheconsumptionofgoods,andthetwoistheincreaseofwagesoverthegrowthoflaborproductivity.Structuralinflation.Pricesaregenerallyrisingduetotheunbalancedstructureofthesocialandeconomicsectors.Thistypeofinflationisgenerallyprominentindevelopingcountries.Mainly3types:oneissomedepartmentsathome,andevensomelargekeyproductsexcessivedemandandinsufficientsupply,causingpricestosoar,andonlyrise,andthenspreadtootherpartsofthepriceoftheproduct,sothatthegeneralpricelevelcontinuedtorise;twodepartmentsinlaborproductivitydevelopmentisnotbalancedtheDepartmentoflaborproductivityleadstofastergrowthinmoneywages,otherdepartmentsofthemoneywageincreases,causingpricestorise,sothatthegeneralriseinthegeneralpricelevel;threeisanopeneconomydepartmentproductprice,affectedbytheinternationalmarketpriceleveltendstoimprove,willaffectthenonopeneconomicsector.Whichleadstothegeneralpricelevelrose.(4)importedinflation.Theriseofdomesticpricescausedbytheriseofcharacterprice.References[1]LiYong,XuZhen.YouthDaily,2009,nineteenth,125-108[2]XuJing.Worldnews.Fifty-firstvolume,2013,tenth,105-108\n[3]XuAiqiang,ShiXianjun,QuDongcai,2013nationalacademicsymposium,Beijing,307-309[4]JingxiuLi,BaishengChen,MakingelectroniccircuitsimulationexperimentbasedontheGUIofMATLAB,JournalofElectricalandElectronicEducation,2004,26(4):99-101[167]V.Vapnik,14bxsjbzb.com/lhjjq/14sjbbf.com/htkylc/2014bxsjbw.com/byylc/520bxsjb.com/dsgjylc/52bxsjb.com/xhtdylc/bxsjbbf.com/hygjylc/bxsjbgj.com/zlgj/bxsjbtp.com/shgz/bxsjbyc.com/xhwlylc/sjb185.com/jztylc/sjb258.com/wrmylc/sjb400.com/zdgjylc/sjb42.com/klkylc/sjb549.com/yfgj/sjb750.com/db/sjb856.com/amxjdc/sjb909.com/heylc/sjb982.com/sjcgjylc/sjbbf3.com/jydylc/TheNatureofStatisticalLearningTheory.NY:SpringerVerlag,1995.[6]JunYao,GuihuaZeng,Keyagreementandidentityauthenticationprotocolsforadhocnetworks,InternalConferenceonInformationTechnology:Codingandcomputing,2004,Vol.2,pp1025-1028.[7]Bohn,O.&J.Flege.1992.TheproductionofnewandsimilarvowesbyadultGerman131-158.learnersofEnglish.StudiesinSecondLanguageAcquisition14:[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